Agriculture technology
Since throwing its doors to foreigners in 1951, Nepal has been receiving significant financial help for development works. Such aid is in the form of either grant or loan. However, with such easy money, we have also become very dependent on outsiders. Today, foreign aid covers over one-fourth of our budget expenditure, thereby substantially weakening our internal capacities.
Prominent socio-economists like Devendra Raj Pandey strongly oppose such donor-dependent development mentality, as it muddies our development goals and contributes to corruption and anarchy. In 2011 alone, Nepal received aid from 40 official donors to the tune of Rs 106 billion. Even such crucial bodies like PMO, Finance Ministry and National Planning Commission depend on this foreign aid.
A serious debate on the need for such aid must start now. Now is the time to assess various impacts of foreign aid, vis-à-vis our achievements and failures. Especially since even the top level ministry officers have expressed reservations with aid utilization. Yes, we have made some progress from foreign supported projects in the last two decades but there are bundles of disappointments as well.
Nepal undoubtedly needs foreign aid for its mega-projects. But our utter dependence has also made us thoroughly incompetent. Seldom do we initiate even small development works like the extension of ring road, building new bridges, or solid waste management in Kathmandu Valley on our own.
The problem with foreign aid is that a large portion is spent on allowances, foreign tours and miscellaneous expenditure for the relevant staff. This is the reason we find so many blue-plated luxury vehicles in the roads of Kathmandu. No wonder bureaucrats try so hard to be associated with such projects. These bureaucrats and ministers who are unreachable to general public are always eager to welcome every foreign diplomat in their chamber, even by going against the code of conduct.
In this context, a refreshing approach of the Israeli Embassy, especially its ambassador to Nepal, Hanan Goder, deserves our appreciation. Last year, the embassy provided agriculture training to 208 Nepali farmers in Israel and this year it is selecting 500 more for similar training. The selected are higher secondary graduates from farmer families. Sana Kishan Bikas Bank selected the candidates through a lottery: 500 from among 1,100 applicants from 21 districts. Those selected will again be trained on modern agriculture practices in Israel and on the ways to implement their skills in Nepal. Israeli monetary aid to Nepal is small, nonetheless such creative help can make a significant contribution to Nepal and is worth more than billions in aid.
Nepal is principally an agricultural country. Until a decade ago, 95 percent of the population depended on agriculture for livelihood; in 2011, the percentage has come down to 71 percent. This decline is largely because of declining productivity. Every day, around 2,000 youths leave the country for work abroad. This has created a vacuum in agriculture sector.
The occupational change has overturned the food balance. The country was once self-dependent in food and even exported rice, sugar and oilseed, but now it is at the mercy of imports. In 2013, we imported rice worth Rs 8 billion and green vegetables worth Rs 2 billion. Despite the fact that Nepal is blessed with natural resources, our inefficiency and negligence has made this potentially productive sector languish far behind. Our organic tea, high altitude coffee, rainbow trout, medicinal mushroom, high altitude cumin and saffron are just a few examples of our unmatched agriculture potential.
But sadly we still depend on rainwater (for irrigation), three-generation old obsolete harvest tools, and old seed. Our farmers are insecure from frequent crop failure. Nepal Agricultural Research Council is inactive. Different cartels have a stranglehold on the market and the government is unable to dismantle them. As a result, farmers are compelled to sell their products at the lowest possible price, whereas consumers have to pay a very high price for the same products.
Israel is about seven times smaller in area as compared to Nepal. It is mainly a desert. Soil quality is bad with scarce presence of water resources. The summer temperature goes up as high as 54 degree Celsius, making it semi-arid or desert climate. Despite such adverse conditions, Israel has conquered nature and turned challenges into opportunities through sheer hard work and big investment in research and development. Its per capita income of US $ 35,658 compares with the most advantaged nations in the world. It has boosted its agriculture with biotechnology that has made the country self-sufficient in food. Only three percent agriculture-based population produces food for 95 percent.
In Israel, our students will get valuable lessons in agriculture technology as well as water conservation, solar energy, communication and software technology. The lessons they get there will hopefully be helpful in reviving the moribund agriculture sector here.
Saturday, July 12, 2014
Monday, June 16, 2014
रकमान्तरको वैधानिकता र बजेट: (कारोबार दैनिक , आशार २ , २०७१ )
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हिजोआज नेपालको बजेट निर्माण र कार्यान्वयन प्रक्रियामा आयोजनाहरू वर्षभरि नै थपघट र फेरबदल भइरहने, बेरुजु बढ्दै जाने र रकमान्तर नियमित प्रक्रिया बनेको छ । यसैगरी वर्षका ८ महिना पुँजीगत खर्च प्रयोग हुन नसक्ने र आर्थिक वर्षको अन्तिम ३–४ महिनामा यसकोे अन्धाधुन्ध खर्च गरिने परिपाटी बनेको छ ।
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रकमान्तरका विषयमा सरकार र विपक्षीबीचको जुहारी सकिएपछि व्यवस्थापिका संसद्मा पूर्वबजेट छलफल आरम्भ भएको छ । यद्यपि रकमान्तरको विषय अझै टुंगिसकेको छैन । पूर्वघोषित कार्यक्रमका लागि छुट्ट्याइएको बजेट आफूखुसी रकमान्तर गर्नु कार्यपालिकाको आर्थिक बदमासी नै हो । के व्यवस्थापिका संसद् (हाल नेपालमा एकमात्र संसद् भएकाले यसलाई प्रतिनिधिसभा भनिए पनि हुन्छ) मा छलफल भई पास गरिएको बजेटमा भएको विभिन्न आयोजना र कार्यक्रमका सिलिङहरू एउटाबाट अर्कोमा, सरकारमा बसेकाले आफूखुसी रकमान्तर गर्न पाइन्छ, त्यो पनि खर्बको हाराहारीमा ? आव ०६५÷६६ देखिको ६ वर्षमा २.२५ खर्बको बजेट रकमान्तर गरी अर्कै प्रयोजनका लागि खर्च भएको छ । रकमान्तरको विवादले सरकार, संसद् र राजनीतिक पार्टीहरूमा जुहारी नै चल्यो । एकातिर रकमान्तरको विरोध अहिले संसद्भित्रै एमाओवादीलगायतका पार्टीहरूबाट भइरहेको छ भने सार्वजनिक लेखासमितिले ५ वर्षको अवधिमा भएको रकमान्तरको यथार्थ विवरण पठाउन अर्थमन्त्रालयलाई कडा निर्देशन दिएको छ, जसअनुसार सरकारले विवरण संसदसमक्ष पठाइसकेको छ । अर्कातिर, लामो समय अर्थसचिव भएका रामेश्वर खनालको “रकमान्तरमा संसद अवरोध ‘औचित्यहीन’ ...... यस्तो पहिले देखि हँुदै आएको परिपाटी हो” भन्ने टिप्पणी सार्वजनिक भएको छ । सत्ताधारी दल नेपाली कांग्रेसका नेताहरू रकमान्तरको बचावका लागि कडा वकालत गर्दैछन् । स्वयं अर्थमन्त्रीले यस विषयमा जवाफ दिने क्रममा रकमान्तर अहिलेदेखि सुरु भएको नभइ विगतदेखिकै अभ्यास भएको बताए भने पूर्वअर्थमन्त्री एवं पूर्वप्रधानमन्त्रीसमेत रहेका डा. बाबुराम भट्टराईले यसलाई धूम्रपानको कुलतसँगै जोड्दै कुलत सिक्न नहुने टिप्पणी गरे । यस्तोमा सामान्य मान्छे यस्ता जुहारीले रनभुल्लमा पर्नु स्वाभाविक हो ।
पूर्वअर्थसचिवलगायत अर्थ मन्त्रालयको जिम्मेवारी पाएको दलको धारणा हास्यप्रद भएको कुरा बजेटको आवश्यकता र प्रयोजन बुझ्ने जो कोहीले सजिलै बुझ्ने कुरा हो । अर्थशास्त्रीका अनुसार रकमान्तर दुई कारणले गर्ने गरिन्छ । अचानक भैपरी आएको समस्याको व्यवस्थापनका लागि, जस्तो विगतमा माओवादी शिविर व्यवस्थापनको लागि गर्नुपरेको थियो र दोस्रो, कुनै छुट्ट्याएको शीर्षकको रकम खर्च नहुँदा र अर्कोमा नपुग्दा गरिने रकमान्तर । आर्थिक कार्यविधि ऐन २०५५ र आर्थिक कार्यविधि नियमावली २०६४ ले रकमान्तरसम्बन्धी व्यवस्था गरेको छ । आर्थिक कार्यविधि ऐन २०५५ को दफा ५५ बमोजिम अर्थमन्त्रालये तोकिएको कुनै शीर्षकमा रकम बचत हुने भएमा विनियोजना ऐनको सीमाभित्र रहेर अर्को शीर्षकमा रकमान्तर गर्न सक्ने व्यवस्था गरेको छ । यस्तो भनिरहँदा सम्झिनुपर्ने कुरा हो— बजेटको प्रयोजन । बजेट भनेको राष्ट्रिय योजनाहरू (जो तल्लो स्तरबाट अनेकांै चरण पार गरी बन्छन् र जसले जनचाहनाको प्रतिनिधित्व गरेको हुन्छ ) का लागि, एवं सरकारका पूर्वघोषित नीतिअनुसारको खर्चका लागि प्रतिनिधिसभाको अनुमोदन लिएर बन्ने राष्ट्रिय खर्चको श्वेतपत्र हो । जो विधायिकाबाट पारित भएपछि कानुनसरह गरी लागू हुन्छ । आर्थिक ऐन र अन्य सहायक ऐनहरूले यसको कार्यान्वयनलाई सुनिश्चित तुल्याउँछन् । बजेट वित्तीय दस्तावेज हो, जसमा एक आर्थिक वर्षभित्र सरकारको आम्दानी र खर्चको हिसाबकिताब मात्रै नभई सम्पूर्ण वित्तीय व्यवस्थापनका पक्षलाई नै समेटेको हुन्छ । कार्यक्रम तर्जुमादेखि कार्यान्वयन, रकम भुक्तानी, खरिद प्रक्रिया, लेखाप्रणाली र रिपोर्टिङसम्मका गतिविधि सार्वजनिक वित्तीय व्यवस्थापनभित्रै पर्छन् । त्यसैले विनियोजित बजेट पूर्वघोषित कार्यक्रमका लागि नै खर्च गर्नुपर्छ । यसरी बनेको बजेटको एक शीर्षकबाट अर्कोमा रकमान्तर गर्नु भनेको राष्ट्रिय योजना र बजेट बन्ने मूलभूत सिद्धान्तहरूको खिल्ली उडाउनु हो, आर्थिक अनुशासनहीनता र नीतिगत भ्रष्टाचार नै हो । आर्थिक वर्षको अन्तिम समयमा आएर गरिने रकमान्तरले भ्रष्टाचारजन्य कार्यलाई प्रोत्साहित गर्छ । रकमान्तर गर्नुको एउटा कारण अचानक भैपरी आएको समस्याको व्यवस्थापनका लागि हो । तर, यस्ता अचानक भैपरी आएका ठूला समस्याहरू विगतमा कति भए र के हरेक वर्ष भएका छन् भन्ने प्रश्न आमरूपमा उठेको छ, तर हरेक वर्ष ठूलो रकमान्तर भएको देखिन्छ । तथ्यांकअनुसार, गत आव ०७०÷७१ को बजेट ५ सय १७ अर्ब २४ करोडको थियो, जसमा झन्डै ७ प्रतिशत अर्थात् ३५ अर्ब ३१ करोड रकमान्तर भएको थियो । यसैगरी अघिल्लो वर्ष ०६९÷७० मा ९ प्रतिशत र सबैभन्दा धेरै रकमान्तर ०६५÷६६ मा ४५ अर्ब ७ करोड भएको देखिन्छ, जुनबेला सरकारमा एमाआवादी थियो । रकमान्तरले सरकारलाई भ्रष्टाचारको सजिलो बाटो खोल्छ, जस्तो— राष्ट्रिय महŒवका योजना जस्तो सडक, खानेपानी स्कुल बनाउनुपर्ने बजेट सरकारी ढिलासुस्ती र अक्षमताले गर्दा अगाडि बढ्न सकेन भने त्यसका लागि छुट्ट्याइएको रकम रकमान्तरको सजिलो अस्त्र प्रयोग गरी नक्कली उपभोक्ता समूहहरू खडा गरी आफ्नो चुनाव क्षेत्रमा लगी आफ्नै कार्यकर्ता पोस्ने कार्यक्रममा खर्च गर्ने । यसरी पछि थपिएका कार्यक्रम प्रायः हचुवा, गाउँको विकास नहुने प्रकारका हुन्छन् । यहाँ, कसको नालायिकीले गर्दा पूर्वघोषित कार्यक्रम र बजेट खर्च हुन नसकिएर थुप्रिएको होे, त्यसबारे अनुसन्धान हुनु बढी आवश्यक देखिन्छ । रकमान्तरको अहिलेको लफडाले बजेट र योजनाका केही अन्य पक्षहरूलाई पनि सतहमा ल्याएको छ ।
हिजोआज नेपालको बजेट निर्माण र कार्यान्वयन प्रक्रियामा आयोजनाहरू वर्षभरि नै थपघट र फेरबदल भइरहने, बेरुजु बढ्दै जाने र रकमान्तर नियमित प्रक्रिया बनेको छ । यसैगरी वर्षका ८ महिना पुँजीगत खर्च प्रयोग हुन नसक्ने र आर्थिक वर्षको अन्तिम ३–४ महिनामा यसकोे अन्धाधुन्ध खर्च गरिने परिपाटी बनेको छ । त्यसमा पनि ६० प्रतिशत रकम त बजेट दिग्दर्शनले तोकेविपरीत असार मसान्तमा खर्च हुने गरेको छ । यी सबै बजेट कार्यान्वयनका नियमित समस्या बनेका छन् । चालू आर्थिक वर्षको ९ महिनामा केवल १६ प्रतिशत पुँजीगत खर्च भएको छ । भनिरहनु पर्दैन, बाँकी भएको ८४ प्रतिशत रकम हचुवाको भरमा अन्तिम महिनामा सक्दो उडाइन्छ । रकमान्तर केवल यसको एक श्रृङ्खला हो । योजना र बजेट प्रक्रियामा जनसहभागिता न्यून भएको छ भने कार्यान्वयन औपचारिकतामा मात्रै सीमित भएको देखिन्छ । यसप्रकारको आर्थिक अनियमितता र बजेटको मनपरी प्रयोग सबै कालका सरकारले गरेका छन् । तर, पहिलेको सरकारले गरेका अनियमित काम यो सरकारले पनि गर्न पाउनुपर्छ भन्ने तर्क गलत हो । बजेट निर्माण गर्ने पूर्वसन्ध्यामा अर्थमन्त्रालय र राष्ट्रिय योजना आयोगमा उद्योेगी–व्यापारी, राजनीतिक कार्यकर्ता–नेताहरूको भीड लागेको हुन्छ । बुद्धिजीवी र विज्ञहरूको विरोधको बाबजुद सरकारले हचुवा निवेदनको भरमा कनिका छरेझैँ प्रत्येक सभासद÷सांसदका लागि रकम बाँड्ने गरेको छ । प्रधानमन्त्री सुशील कोइरालाको भागमा पनि ५० लाख परेकोे छापामा आएको थियो । अर्थको कृपापात्र सबैमा बाँडिएको यस्तोे रकम करिब ६० करोड पुगेको अनुमान छ । यो बाँडचुँड कुन योजनाअन्तर्गत गरिएको हो ? के यसरी छरिएको रकम गाउँसम्म पुग्छ ? कि यो चुनाव खर्चको क्षतिपूर्ति हो ? योे पैसा छराई रकमान्तरको जादुबाट नै सम्भव भएको हो । आव २०६९÷७० मा असुल गर्न बाँकीमध्ये ५६ प्रतिशत बेरुजु अर्थमन्त्रालयको मात्रै भएको महालेखापरीक्षकको प्रतिवेदनले औंल्याएको छ । अर्थमन्त्रालय वित्तीय अनुशासन पालन गराउने निकाय हो । तर, तथ्यांकहरू बोल्छन्, अर्थमन्त्रालयले हरेक वर्ष भैपरी शीर्षकमा ठूलो रकम ओगटेर राख्छ र त्यो रकम वर्षान्तमा रकमान्तर गरेर बाँडचुँड गरिन्छ । यसबाट प्रस्ट हुन्छ, आजको मितिसम्ममा सबैभन्दा आर्थिक अनुशासनहीनतामा कसले नेतृत्व गरेको रहेछ र विगतमा अर्थमन्त्रालयका लागि किन ठूला मनमुटाव हुन्थ्यो अनि सरकारी भ्रष्टाचारको मूल जरो कहाँ रहेछ ।
राष्ट्रिय बजेट र योजनामा ‘लुटको धन, फुपूको श्राद्ध’ झैँ गरी अनियमितताको खेल हुनु राष्ट्रिय अर्थतन्त्रका लागि घातक कुरा हो । यसको अनुशासित कार्यान्वयन देश विकासको मेरुदण्ड भएकाले यसको खबरदारी र अनुगमनका लागि सम्पूर्ण सञ्चार जगत, विज्ञ समाज, राजनीतिक दल र नेताहरूसचेत र सक्रिय हुनु आवश्यक छ । आशा गरौं, वर्तमान सरकार र आउँदा सरकारहरूले वित्तीय अनुशासन पालन गर्नेछन्; रकमान्तरको प्रयास गर्नेछैनन्, यसमा गर्व गर्नेछैनन्, बेरुजु गर्ने छैनन् र गाउँका जनताबाट नै सिफारिश भएका, खोजिएका योजनाहरू नै सिंहदरबारमा पास हुनेछन् । यसका लागि सरकारका आर्थिक क्रियाकलाप चनाखो भई हेर्ने र यो सही तरिकाले भएको नदेखेमा हामी सबैले त्यसको भद्र विरोध गरे यस किसिमका आर्थिक अनुशासनहीनता कम भएर जानेछ ।
रकमान्तरका विषयमा सरकार र विपक्षीबीचको जुहारी सकिएपछि व्यवस्थापिका संसद्मा पूर्वबजेट छलफल आरम्भ भएको छ । यद्यपि रकमान्तरको विषय अझै टुंगिसकेको छैन । पूर्वघोषित कार्यक्रमका लागि छुट्ट्याइएको बजेट आफूखुसी रकमान्तर गर्नु कार्यपालिकाको आर्थिक बदमासी नै हो । के व्यवस्थापिका संसद् (हाल नेपालमा एकमात्र संसद् भएकाले यसलाई प्रतिनिधिसभा भनिए पनि हुन्छ) मा छलफल भई पास गरिएको बजेटमा भएको विभिन्न आयोजना र कार्यक्रमका सिलिङहरू एउटाबाट अर्कोमा, सरकारमा बसेकाले आफूखुसी रकमान्तर गर्न पाइन्छ, त्यो पनि खर्बको हाराहारीमा ? आव ०६५÷६६ देखिको ६ वर्षमा २.२५ खर्बको बजेट रकमान्तर गरी अर्कै प्रयोजनका लागि खर्च भएको छ । रकमान्तरको विवादले सरकार, संसद् र राजनीतिक पार्टीहरूमा जुहारी नै चल्यो । एकातिर रकमान्तरको विरोध अहिले संसद्भित्रै एमाओवादीलगायतका पार्टीहरूबाट भइरहेको छ भने सार्वजनिक लेखासमितिले ५ वर्षको अवधिमा भएको रकमान्तरको यथार्थ विवरण पठाउन अर्थमन्त्रालयलाई कडा निर्देशन दिएको छ, जसअनुसार सरकारले विवरण संसदसमक्ष पठाइसकेको छ । अर्कातिर, लामो समय अर्थसचिव भएका रामेश्वर खनालको “रकमान्तरमा संसद अवरोध ‘औचित्यहीन’ ...... यस्तो पहिले देखि हँुदै आएको परिपाटी हो” भन्ने टिप्पणी सार्वजनिक भएको छ । सत्ताधारी दल नेपाली कांग्रेसका नेताहरू रकमान्तरको बचावका लागि कडा वकालत गर्दैछन् । स्वयं अर्थमन्त्रीले यस विषयमा जवाफ दिने क्रममा रकमान्तर अहिलेदेखि सुरु भएको नभइ विगतदेखिकै अभ्यास भएको बताए भने पूर्वअर्थमन्त्री एवं पूर्वप्रधानमन्त्रीसमेत रहेका डा. बाबुराम भट्टराईले यसलाई धूम्रपानको कुलतसँगै जोड्दै कुलत सिक्न नहुने टिप्पणी गरे । यस्तोमा सामान्य मान्छे यस्ता जुहारीले रनभुल्लमा पर्नु स्वाभाविक हो ।
पूर्वअर्थसचिवलगायत अर्थ मन्त्रालयको जिम्मेवारी पाएको दलको धारणा हास्यप्रद भएको कुरा बजेटको आवश्यकता र प्रयोजन बुझ्ने जो कोहीले सजिलै बुझ्ने कुरा हो । अर्थशास्त्रीका अनुसार रकमान्तर दुई कारणले गर्ने गरिन्छ । अचानक भैपरी आएको समस्याको व्यवस्थापनका लागि, जस्तो विगतमा माओवादी शिविर व्यवस्थापनको लागि गर्नुपरेको थियो र दोस्रो, कुनै छुट्ट्याएको शीर्षकको रकम खर्च नहुँदा र अर्कोमा नपुग्दा गरिने रकमान्तर । आर्थिक कार्यविधि ऐन २०५५ र आर्थिक कार्यविधि नियमावली २०६४ ले रकमान्तरसम्बन्धी व्यवस्था गरेको छ । आर्थिक कार्यविधि ऐन २०५५ को दफा ५५ बमोजिम अर्थमन्त्रालये तोकिएको कुनै शीर्षकमा रकम बचत हुने भएमा विनियोजना ऐनको सीमाभित्र रहेर अर्को शीर्षकमा रकमान्तर गर्न सक्ने व्यवस्था गरेको छ । यस्तो भनिरहँदा सम्झिनुपर्ने कुरा हो— बजेटको प्रयोजन । बजेट भनेको राष्ट्रिय योजनाहरू (जो तल्लो स्तरबाट अनेकांै चरण पार गरी बन्छन् र जसले जनचाहनाको प्रतिनिधित्व गरेको हुन्छ ) का लागि, एवं सरकारका पूर्वघोषित नीतिअनुसारको खर्चका लागि प्रतिनिधिसभाको अनुमोदन लिएर बन्ने राष्ट्रिय खर्चको श्वेतपत्र हो । जो विधायिकाबाट पारित भएपछि कानुनसरह गरी लागू हुन्छ । आर्थिक ऐन र अन्य सहायक ऐनहरूले यसको कार्यान्वयनलाई सुनिश्चित तुल्याउँछन् । बजेट वित्तीय दस्तावेज हो, जसमा एक आर्थिक वर्षभित्र सरकारको आम्दानी र खर्चको हिसाबकिताब मात्रै नभई सम्पूर्ण वित्तीय व्यवस्थापनका पक्षलाई नै समेटेको हुन्छ । कार्यक्रम तर्जुमादेखि कार्यान्वयन, रकम भुक्तानी, खरिद प्रक्रिया, लेखाप्रणाली र रिपोर्टिङसम्मका गतिविधि सार्वजनिक वित्तीय व्यवस्थापनभित्रै पर्छन् । त्यसैले विनियोजित बजेट पूर्वघोषित कार्यक्रमका लागि नै खर्च गर्नुपर्छ । यसरी बनेको बजेटको एक शीर्षकबाट अर्कोमा रकमान्तर गर्नु भनेको राष्ट्रिय योजना र बजेट बन्ने मूलभूत सिद्धान्तहरूको खिल्ली उडाउनु हो, आर्थिक अनुशासनहीनता र नीतिगत भ्रष्टाचार नै हो । आर्थिक वर्षको अन्तिम समयमा आएर गरिने रकमान्तरले भ्रष्टाचारजन्य कार्यलाई प्रोत्साहित गर्छ । रकमान्तर गर्नुको एउटा कारण अचानक भैपरी आएको समस्याको व्यवस्थापनका लागि हो । तर, यस्ता अचानक भैपरी आएका ठूला समस्याहरू विगतमा कति भए र के हरेक वर्ष भएका छन् भन्ने प्रश्न आमरूपमा उठेको छ, तर हरेक वर्ष ठूलो रकमान्तर भएको देखिन्छ । तथ्यांकअनुसार, गत आव ०७०÷७१ को बजेट ५ सय १७ अर्ब २४ करोडको थियो, जसमा झन्डै ७ प्रतिशत अर्थात् ३५ अर्ब ३१ करोड रकमान्तर भएको थियो । यसैगरी अघिल्लो वर्ष ०६९÷७० मा ९ प्रतिशत र सबैभन्दा धेरै रकमान्तर ०६५÷६६ मा ४५ अर्ब ७ करोड भएको देखिन्छ, जुनबेला सरकारमा एमाआवादी थियो । रकमान्तरले सरकारलाई भ्रष्टाचारको सजिलो बाटो खोल्छ, जस्तो— राष्ट्रिय महŒवका योजना जस्तो सडक, खानेपानी स्कुल बनाउनुपर्ने बजेट सरकारी ढिलासुस्ती र अक्षमताले गर्दा अगाडि बढ्न सकेन भने त्यसका लागि छुट्ट्याइएको रकम रकमान्तरको सजिलो अस्त्र प्रयोग गरी नक्कली उपभोक्ता समूहहरू खडा गरी आफ्नो चुनाव क्षेत्रमा लगी आफ्नै कार्यकर्ता पोस्ने कार्यक्रममा खर्च गर्ने । यसरी पछि थपिएका कार्यक्रम प्रायः हचुवा, गाउँको विकास नहुने प्रकारका हुन्छन् । यहाँ, कसको नालायिकीले गर्दा पूर्वघोषित कार्यक्रम र बजेट खर्च हुन नसकिएर थुप्रिएको होे, त्यसबारे अनुसन्धान हुनु बढी आवश्यक देखिन्छ । रकमान्तरको अहिलेको लफडाले बजेट र योजनाका केही अन्य पक्षहरूलाई पनि सतहमा ल्याएको छ ।
हिजोआज नेपालको बजेट निर्माण र कार्यान्वयन प्रक्रियामा आयोजनाहरू वर्षभरि नै थपघट र फेरबदल भइरहने, बेरुजु बढ्दै जाने र रकमान्तर नियमित प्रक्रिया बनेको छ । यसैगरी वर्षका ८ महिना पुँजीगत खर्च प्रयोग हुन नसक्ने र आर्थिक वर्षको अन्तिम ३–४ महिनामा यसकोे अन्धाधुन्ध खर्च गरिने परिपाटी बनेको छ । त्यसमा पनि ६० प्रतिशत रकम त बजेट दिग्दर्शनले तोकेविपरीत असार मसान्तमा खर्च हुने गरेको छ । यी सबै बजेट कार्यान्वयनका नियमित समस्या बनेका छन् । चालू आर्थिक वर्षको ९ महिनामा केवल १६ प्रतिशत पुँजीगत खर्च भएको छ । भनिरहनु पर्दैन, बाँकी भएको ८४ प्रतिशत रकम हचुवाको भरमा अन्तिम महिनामा सक्दो उडाइन्छ । रकमान्तर केवल यसको एक श्रृङ्खला हो । योजना र बजेट प्रक्रियामा जनसहभागिता न्यून भएको छ भने कार्यान्वयन औपचारिकतामा मात्रै सीमित भएको देखिन्छ । यसप्रकारको आर्थिक अनियमितता र बजेटको मनपरी प्रयोग सबै कालका सरकारले गरेका छन् । तर, पहिलेको सरकारले गरेका अनियमित काम यो सरकारले पनि गर्न पाउनुपर्छ भन्ने तर्क गलत हो । बजेट निर्माण गर्ने पूर्वसन्ध्यामा अर्थमन्त्रालय र राष्ट्रिय योजना आयोगमा उद्योेगी–व्यापारी, राजनीतिक कार्यकर्ता–नेताहरूको भीड लागेको हुन्छ । बुद्धिजीवी र विज्ञहरूको विरोधको बाबजुद सरकारले हचुवा निवेदनको भरमा कनिका छरेझैँ प्रत्येक सभासद÷सांसदका लागि रकम बाँड्ने गरेको छ । प्रधानमन्त्री सुशील कोइरालाको भागमा पनि ५० लाख परेकोे छापामा आएको थियो । अर्थको कृपापात्र सबैमा बाँडिएको यस्तोे रकम करिब ६० करोड पुगेको अनुमान छ । यो बाँडचुँड कुन योजनाअन्तर्गत गरिएको हो ? के यसरी छरिएको रकम गाउँसम्म पुग्छ ? कि यो चुनाव खर्चको क्षतिपूर्ति हो ? योे पैसा छराई रकमान्तरको जादुबाट नै सम्भव भएको हो । आव २०६९÷७० मा असुल गर्न बाँकीमध्ये ५६ प्रतिशत बेरुजु अर्थमन्त्रालयको मात्रै भएको महालेखापरीक्षकको प्रतिवेदनले औंल्याएको छ । अर्थमन्त्रालय वित्तीय अनुशासन पालन गराउने निकाय हो । तर, तथ्यांकहरू बोल्छन्, अर्थमन्त्रालयले हरेक वर्ष भैपरी शीर्षकमा ठूलो रकम ओगटेर राख्छ र त्यो रकम वर्षान्तमा रकमान्तर गरेर बाँडचुँड गरिन्छ । यसबाट प्रस्ट हुन्छ, आजको मितिसम्ममा सबैभन्दा आर्थिक अनुशासनहीनतामा कसले नेतृत्व गरेको रहेछ र विगतमा अर्थमन्त्रालयका लागि किन ठूला मनमुटाव हुन्थ्यो अनि सरकारी भ्रष्टाचारको मूल जरो कहाँ रहेछ ।
राष्ट्रिय बजेट र योजनामा ‘लुटको धन, फुपूको श्राद्ध’ झैँ गरी अनियमितताको खेल हुनु राष्ट्रिय अर्थतन्त्रका लागि घातक कुरा हो । यसको अनुशासित कार्यान्वयन देश विकासको मेरुदण्ड भएकाले यसको खबरदारी र अनुगमनका लागि सम्पूर्ण सञ्चार जगत, विज्ञ समाज, राजनीतिक दल र नेताहरूसचेत र सक्रिय हुनु आवश्यक छ । आशा गरौं, वर्तमान सरकार र आउँदा सरकारहरूले वित्तीय अनुशासन पालन गर्नेछन्; रकमान्तरको प्रयास गर्नेछैनन्, यसमा गर्व गर्नेछैनन्, बेरुजु गर्ने छैनन् र गाउँका जनताबाट नै सिफारिश भएका, खोजिएका योजनाहरू नै सिंहदरबारमा पास हुनेछन् । यसका लागि सरकारका आर्थिक क्रियाकलाप चनाखो भई हेर्ने र यो सही तरिकाले भएको नदेखेमा हामी सबैले त्यसको भद्र विरोध गरे यस किसिमका आर्थिक अनुशासनहीनता कम भएर जानेछ ।
Tuesday, June 3, 2014
Budget Concerns (MyRepublica 3 June 2014)
"Don't split budget into small pieces. Use it only for mega projects: Roads, only reservoir type hydro-projects, high voltage extension lines"----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
The budget for the next fiscal 2014/15 is about to come out and everyone is keen to know the exact divisions of the budget pie. This budget will be presented by a newly elected government with the help of a fresh team of planning commission officers. Development workers, economists, industrialists and the general public all are looking forward to it with expectation.
It is the second time that the republic is having a full-fledged budget. The last budget was designed by bureaucrats and technocrats and criticized for failing to take into account people’s real needs. For example, only around 7 percent was allocated for infrastructure development. If we evaluate the past year’s performance there is little room for optimism. High inflation, increasing trade deficit, inability to spend large portion of development budget, and dissonance (beruju) in budget utilization are worryingly persistent.
However, this time an elected government is in-charge of the budget. It has made many development promises to voters. So, besides its main duty of the completing the constitution, it has to come good on people’s expectation of significant increase in budget allocation for development works.
It is true that different potential beneficiaries have different demands and aspirations. But the government should concentrate on mega projects and not cut down the national budget into small pieces for insignificant works or for vested political interests. One example of budget misallocation was the attempt of last government to distribute a million rupee to each Member of Parliament before the Constituent Assembly election. This attempt was thwarted by the Supreme Court. Economists and development experts strongly criticized this move as it would increase fiscal irregularity, inflation and corruption. But the current Finance Minister has still vowed to continue with such distributions to MPs. It will be another serious mistake.
Again, we need to spend the budget for large infrastructure projects, which is essential for the country’s development. But there is great hesitancy to invest in such projects. In the last CA election all major parties promised to reduce load-shedding, increase road access to mountain and hilly districts, especially in the Mid-West, provide safe drinking water, among other promises. Since they won elections partly due to such planks, it’s time they delivered.
On electricity, we have to realize that only generation of hydroelectricity is meaningless until we have strong transmission highways from remote areas where dams are built to the urban industrial areas. For the construction of such transmission lines that pass through villages and forests, governmental protection is essential for mediation and settlement plans. While constructing such transmission lines we should plan for the next 50 years, for which we need high capacity 400 KV lines. Currently, our transmission lines are mostly 33KV; we even have 11KV lines. From the ongoing Chameliya and Trisuli 3A and 3B projects, we expect an additional 1,650 MW in the near future.
According to Nepal Electricity Board, we have short-term projects that are expected to generate 3,271 MW, midterm projects to generate 4,952 MW and long-term projects to generate 22,000 MW. Without powerful transmission lines the power generated from them cannot be properly distributed or exported. For such high capacity lines construction cost will be high. Hence, private-public partnership might be the way to go about it.
The government should stop financing run-of-the-river projects and give new licenses only to reservoir projects. We have only a single reservoir project at Kulekhani that generates 92 MW from its two dams. This project has reduced load-shedding by two-four hours in slack winter season. Our mountainous topography gives ample options for easy construction of such reservoirs.
The major hurdle on the path of development is lack of road access. Many districts in the Mid-West are not touched by road network. Many of the highly populated villages of Bajhang, Humla, Jumla, Dolpa, Mugu, Bajhang, Kalikot, Dailekh and Jajarkot districts either have no road access or only weather-dependant roads. The same is true of several hilly and mountain settlements of other development regions. If there are proper roads, the government has to worry less about education, health, and income outcomes.
Thus, on the eve of the new budget, Nepalis expect the government to lay out a plan for development of roads, reservoir-based hydroelectricity projects and high capacity transmission lines.
Sunday, May 18, 2014
Thursday, May 8, 2014
आर्थिक विकास : आस गरौं भर नपरौं: कारोबार दैनिक, बैशाख २४
आर्थिक वृद्धिको स्थिरता र अझै उकालो लगाउनका लागि जुनसुकै दलको शासन भए पनि पूर्वाधार निर्माणमा राज्यले सम्पूर्ण ध्यान दिनुपर्छ र प्रगतिलाई कडाइका साथ अनुगमन गर्नुपर्छ । यसका साथै आर्थिक विकासको मेरुदण्डका रूपमा रहेको कृषिलाई आधुनिकीकरण गर्दै जानु अनिवार्य छ ।
– प्रा.डा. विकासराज सत्याल
आउँदो वर्षमा आर्थिक वृद्धिदर ५.१५ प्रतिशत र प्रतिव्यक्ति वार्षिक आय ७ सय १७ डलर पुग्ने अनुमान तथ्यांक विभागले सार्वजनिक गरिएको छ । पहिलो पटक दुई त्रैमासिक (चालू आर्थिक वर्षको ८ महिनाको) तथ्यांकलाई आधार बनाएर सार्वजनिक भएको कुल गार्हस्थ्य उत्पादन वृद्धिदरको तथ्यांकसँगै केही बहस आरम्भ भएका छन् ।यो उत्साही अनुमान यथार्थ तथ्यांककै आधारबाट गरिएकाले बढी सम्भाव्य देखिन्छ । तर, गएका केही वर्षका सम्पूर्ण आर्थिक सूचकांकहरू नकारात्मक देखिएको स्थितिमा पहिले त यो वृद्धिदरमाथि नै प्रश्न उठाउने ठाउँ प्रशस्त छ र दोस्रो यो वृृद्धि साँच्चै भए पनि यसले भविष्य ढुक्क पार्ने आशा दिन सक्दैन, किनकि यो दिगो विकास होइन ।
तथ्यांक विभागकै अनुसार, हाम्रो आर्थिक वृद्धिदर गत वर्ष ३.४६ प्रतिशत थियो, जो गएको ५ वर्षयताको सबैभन्दा कम थियो र प्रतिव्यक्ति आय ७ सय १३ डलर । हालै हामीले स्थिर सरकार पाएका छौँ, जसका आधारमा अर्थतन्त्र सुधारोन्मुख हुने अनुमान गर्न सकिन्छ । तर, केवल स्थिर सरकार पर्याप्त आधार हुन सक्दैन । फेरि स्वार्थको टकरावमा राजनीतिको स्थिरता अति दुर्लभ भएको तीतो यथार्थ हामीले भोगेकै कुरा हो । हुनत तथ्यांक विभागको यो वृद्धिको अनुमानमा मुख्य आधार गत वर्षको राम्रो मनसुन नै देखिएको छ, जसले कृषि, त्यसमा पनि धानको उत्पादनमा राम्रो वृद्धि भएको देखिएको छ । तर, यसका साथै गार्हस्थ्य उत्पादनको ५२.२३ प्रतिशत अंश ओगटेको तृतीय क्षेत्र अर्थात् सेवाक्षेत्र जसमा– थोक तथा खुद्रा व्यापार, होटल तथा रेस्टुराँ, यातायात, सञ्चार रियल–इस्टेट तथा व्यावसायिक सेवा, शिक्षा, स्वास्थ्यजस्ता सेवामूलक क्षेत्र पर्छन्, यिनीहरूको वृद्धिको आधार पनि आँकलन गरिएको छ, जो बढेर गत वर्षभन्दा ६.१३ प्रतिशत हुने तथ्याक विभागको अनुमान छ । यो अनुमान गर्ने कलामा पनि एउटा विचित्रता हुन्छ । आनी छोइङको ‘फूलको आँखामा फूलनै संसार...’ को सिद्धान्त तथ्यांकशास्त्रको अनुमान पद्धतिमा पनि लागू हुन्छ । अनुमान गर्दा फूल कि काँडा अर्थात् उदार कि अनुदार पद्धतिबाट भन्ने गरिन्छ नै । लाग्छ हालको यो अनुमान फूलको आँखाबाट गरिएको हो ।
सपना जे देखे पनि, देश आर्थिक रूपमा कति खोक्रो हुँदै गएको छ भन्ने कुरा हिजोका यथार्थ आँकडाहरूबाट मात्रै देखिने हो । गत वर्षको आर्थिक सर्वेक्षण र चौमासिक प्रतिवेदनहरूका अनुसार २०६९÷७० मा देशको व्यापारघाटा २३.९ प्रतिशतले बढेर झन्डै ५ खर्ब पुग्न लागेको छ र प्रत्येक १ सय रुपैयाँको निर्यात गर्दा हामी ७ सयको आयात गर्दैछौं । कृषि उत्पादनमा, जसको सहाराले हालको यो आर्थिक वृद्धिको प्रक्षेपण गरिएको छ, उत्पादकत्व यति बिग्रेको छ कि केही वर्ष पहिले चामल निर्यात गर्ने नेपाल अचेल हरेक वर्ष आयातमा वृद्धि गर्दै यो वर्ष १४ अर्बको चामल आयात गर्न पुगेको छ, जो गत वर्षभन्दा २ सय ४४ प्रतिशतले बढी हो । कृषि क्षेत्रमा ज्ञान र सीपको आधुनिकीकरण पसेको छैन । बीउ, मल, औजार, उत्पादन प्रणाली सबै पुरानै भएकाले उत्पादकत्व निराशाजनक हुँदै गएको छ । १ हजार ५ सय युवाको दैनिक विदेश पलायनको एक प्रमुख कारण कृषिको खराब उत्पादकत्व नै हो । गार्हस्थ्य उत्पादनमा ५२ प्रतिशत योगदान दिने सेवालगायतका क्षेत्रको योगदान पनि सहज हुने देखिँदैन । निजी क्षेत्रका शिक्षा, स्वास्थ्यमा हुने लुट र अव्यवस्थाको पोल खुल्दै छन् । चरम बेरोजगारी, ९–१० प्रतिशतसम्मको मुद्रास्फीति, बेलगाम सरकारी खर्च र बेरुजु, बैंक–वित्तीय संस्था र सहकारीका घोटालाहरू, धराशायी घरजग्गा कारोबार– यी सबैले तृतीय क्षेत्रको विकास सहज हुने देखिँदैन । फलस्वरूप आर्थिक वृद्धि स्थिर हुने देखिँदैन ।
तथ्यांक आधारित भएकाले विभागको यो अनुमान सही होस् भन्ने शुभकामना आमजनताको रहे पनि एकै समयको सरकारी निकायको एउटै तथ्यांकसमेत भिन्दाभिन्दै हुने बिगतको अनुभव पनि हामीसँग छ । जस्तो, आर्थिक सर्भेक्षण ०६९÷७० मा गरिबीको रेखामुनिको जनसंख्या २३.८ प्रतिशत भनिरहँदा त्यही वर्षको त्रिवर्षीय योजनाको आधारपत्रमा यो संख्या ४१.५ प्रतिशत लेखिएको भेटिन्छ । यसैगरी, त्यसैताका अक्सफोर्ड भन्ने एक ब्रिटिस अनुसन्धान संस्थाले गरेको स्वतन्त्र मूल्यांकनमा ६० प्रतिशतभन्दा बढी जनता गरिबीको रेखामुनि रहेको तथ्यांक प्रकाशित भएकोे थियो, जसबाट देशमा एउटा ठूलो हलचल नै आयो, जो पछि ‘गणना गर्ने विधिको भिन्नताले भएको’ भन्ने विज्ञप्ति नेपाल सरकारले निकालेर मात्र शान्त भएको थियो । हालै अन्तर्राष्ट्रिय मुद्राकोषको ‘विश्व आर्थिक परिदृश्य २०१४’ मा देखाएअनुसार नेपालको आर्थिक वृद्धिदर घट्ने र प्रतिव्यक्ति आय घटेर ६ सय ४० डलर पुग्ने देखिएको छ । विश्व बैंक र एसियाली विकास बैंकले पनि आर्थिक वृद्धि घट्ने नै अनुमान गरेका छन् । यी दुवै संस्थाका अनुसार नेपालको वृद्धिदर ४.५ प्रतिशत रहने देखिएको छ, जबकि केन्द्रीय तथ्यांक विभागले यो वर्ष ५.१५ प्रतिशतको वृद्धिदर हासिल हुने तथ्यांक भर्खर सार्वजनिक गरेको छ, यस्ता खाले विरोधाभासपूर्ण दृश्य यसपल्ट हाम्रो तथ्यांकको नहोस् ।
तर आर्थिक वृद्धि तथ्यांक विभागले सोचेअनुसार नै हुँदा पनि यसले हाम्रो दिगो प्रगतिको संकेत भने दिएको छैन । देशमा भित्रिएको विप्रेषण र स्वदेशको आयको ९०.५ प्रतिशत खर्च, उपभोग्य वस्तु अर्थात् खान, लाउन र विलासी वस्तुको खरिदमै भएको छ, जो स्वदेशी उद्योग नहुँदा विदेशबाटै आयातीत हुन्छ । यी आयहरू पूर्वाधार निर्माण या बचतमा गएको छैन, जो दुर्भाग्यपूर्ण हो । आर्थिक वृद्धिको यो सम्भाव्य तथ्यांक गत २ वर्षको राम्रो मनसुन जनित हो भन्ने कुरा स्वयं तथ्यांक विभागले नै स्वीकार गरेको छ । हाम्रा पौरखी युवाहरूको विदेश जाने लर्काे हामीले रोक्न सकेका छैनौं, काम गरेर निर्धक्क बाँच्न सक्ने वातावरण दिन सकेका छैनौं । त्यसैले हाम्रा कृषि गरिँदै रहेका खेत–खरिहान अहिले बाँझो हुँदै गएका छन् । हाम्रा उद्योग–व्यापारलाई फस्टाउने वातावरण दिन सकेका छैनौं, बन्द–हड्ताल र चन्दाआतंक रोक्न सकेका छैनौं । विकासको खम्बा मानिने सडक र बिजुलीजस्ता पूर्वाधार ठाउँ–ठाउँमा पु¥याउन सकेका छैनौं, लोडसेडिङ र इन्धन अभाव उद्योगले सधैं भोग्नुपरेको छ । फलस्वरूप उद्योग, व्यापार, कृषि चलाउन छिमेकी देशबाट श्रमिकको भरथेक गर्नुपर्ने देखिँदैछ । वासिङ्गटनस्थित ‘विश्व मौद्रिक एकाई’ (ग्लोबल फाइनान्सियल इन्टिग्रिटी) को तथ्यांकअनुसार सन् २००२ देखि २०१३ सम्ममा नेपालबाट ८ अर्ब डलर विदेश पलायन भएको छ, जसमा सन् २००९ र २०१० मा मात्रै क्रमशः १.५५ अर्ब र १.८८ अर्ब पलायन भएको थियो, जसअनुसार नेपाल संसारकै उच्च विदेशी मुद्रा पलायन हुने देशमा पर्छ । अध्ययनकर्ताहरूका अनुसार यो पलायनको मुख्य कारण देशमा बढ्दो अपराध, अपहरण, फिरौती, करछली र भ्रष्टाचारबाट अर्जित सम्पत्तिको सेरोफेरो हो । यसरी देशको मौद्रिक र श्रमशक्तिको ठूलो पुँजी हरेक वर्ष पलायन हुँदै जाने हो भने हाम्रो आर्थिक, सामाजिक या राजनीतिक– कुनै खाले प्रगति हुने सम्भावना यथार्थमा भन्दा भाषण र कागजमा मात्र सीमित हुने दुर्भाग्य बढ्दै जाने देखिन्छ ।
यो आर्थिक वृद्धिको स्थिरता र अझै उकालो लगाउनका लागि जुनसुकै दलको शासन भए पनि पूर्वाधार निर्माणमा राज्यले सम्पूर्ण ध्यान दिनुपर्छ र प्रगतिलाई कडाइका साथ अनुगमन गर्नुपर्छ । यसका साथै आर्थिक विकासको मेरुदण्डका रूपमा रहेको कृषिलाई आधुनिकरण गर्दै जानु अनिवार्य छ ।
– प्रा.डा. विकासराज सत्याल
आउँदो वर्षमा आर्थिक वृद्धिदर ५.१५ प्रतिशत र प्रतिव्यक्ति वार्षिक आय ७ सय १७ डलर पुग्ने अनुमान तथ्यांक विभागले सार्वजनिक गरिएको छ । पहिलो पटक दुई त्रैमासिक (चालू आर्थिक वर्षको ८ महिनाको) तथ्यांकलाई आधार बनाएर सार्वजनिक भएको कुल गार्हस्थ्य उत्पादन वृद्धिदरको तथ्यांकसँगै केही बहस आरम्भ भएका छन् ।यो उत्साही अनुमान यथार्थ तथ्यांककै आधारबाट गरिएकाले बढी सम्भाव्य देखिन्छ । तर, गएका केही वर्षका सम्पूर्ण आर्थिक सूचकांकहरू नकारात्मक देखिएको स्थितिमा पहिले त यो वृद्धिदरमाथि नै प्रश्न उठाउने ठाउँ प्रशस्त छ र दोस्रो यो वृृद्धि साँच्चै भए पनि यसले भविष्य ढुक्क पार्ने आशा दिन सक्दैन, किनकि यो दिगो विकास होइन ।
तथ्यांक विभागकै अनुसार, हाम्रो आर्थिक वृद्धिदर गत वर्ष ३.४६ प्रतिशत थियो, जो गएको ५ वर्षयताको सबैभन्दा कम थियो र प्रतिव्यक्ति आय ७ सय १३ डलर । हालै हामीले स्थिर सरकार पाएका छौँ, जसका आधारमा अर्थतन्त्र सुधारोन्मुख हुने अनुमान गर्न सकिन्छ । तर, केवल स्थिर सरकार पर्याप्त आधार हुन सक्दैन । फेरि स्वार्थको टकरावमा राजनीतिको स्थिरता अति दुर्लभ भएको तीतो यथार्थ हामीले भोगेकै कुरा हो । हुनत तथ्यांक विभागको यो वृद्धिको अनुमानमा मुख्य आधार गत वर्षको राम्रो मनसुन नै देखिएको छ, जसले कृषि, त्यसमा पनि धानको उत्पादनमा राम्रो वृद्धि भएको देखिएको छ । तर, यसका साथै गार्हस्थ्य उत्पादनको ५२.२३ प्रतिशत अंश ओगटेको तृतीय क्षेत्र अर्थात् सेवाक्षेत्र जसमा– थोक तथा खुद्रा व्यापार, होटल तथा रेस्टुराँ, यातायात, सञ्चार रियल–इस्टेट तथा व्यावसायिक सेवा, शिक्षा, स्वास्थ्यजस्ता सेवामूलक क्षेत्र पर्छन्, यिनीहरूको वृद्धिको आधार पनि आँकलन गरिएको छ, जो बढेर गत वर्षभन्दा ६.१३ प्रतिशत हुने तथ्याक विभागको अनुमान छ । यो अनुमान गर्ने कलामा पनि एउटा विचित्रता हुन्छ । आनी छोइङको ‘फूलको आँखामा फूलनै संसार...’ को सिद्धान्त तथ्यांकशास्त्रको अनुमान पद्धतिमा पनि लागू हुन्छ । अनुमान गर्दा फूल कि काँडा अर्थात् उदार कि अनुदार पद्धतिबाट भन्ने गरिन्छ नै । लाग्छ हालको यो अनुमान फूलको आँखाबाट गरिएको हो ।
सपना जे देखे पनि, देश आर्थिक रूपमा कति खोक्रो हुँदै गएको छ भन्ने कुरा हिजोका यथार्थ आँकडाहरूबाट मात्रै देखिने हो । गत वर्षको आर्थिक सर्वेक्षण र चौमासिक प्रतिवेदनहरूका अनुसार २०६९÷७० मा देशको व्यापारघाटा २३.९ प्रतिशतले बढेर झन्डै ५ खर्ब पुग्न लागेको छ र प्रत्येक १ सय रुपैयाँको निर्यात गर्दा हामी ७ सयको आयात गर्दैछौं । कृषि उत्पादनमा, जसको सहाराले हालको यो आर्थिक वृद्धिको प्रक्षेपण गरिएको छ, उत्पादकत्व यति बिग्रेको छ कि केही वर्ष पहिले चामल निर्यात गर्ने नेपाल अचेल हरेक वर्ष आयातमा वृद्धि गर्दै यो वर्ष १४ अर्बको चामल आयात गर्न पुगेको छ, जो गत वर्षभन्दा २ सय ४४ प्रतिशतले बढी हो । कृषि क्षेत्रमा ज्ञान र सीपको आधुनिकीकरण पसेको छैन । बीउ, मल, औजार, उत्पादन प्रणाली सबै पुरानै भएकाले उत्पादकत्व निराशाजनक हुँदै गएको छ । १ हजार ५ सय युवाको दैनिक विदेश पलायनको एक प्रमुख कारण कृषिको खराब उत्पादकत्व नै हो । गार्हस्थ्य उत्पादनमा ५२ प्रतिशत योगदान दिने सेवालगायतका क्षेत्रको योगदान पनि सहज हुने देखिँदैन । निजी क्षेत्रका शिक्षा, स्वास्थ्यमा हुने लुट र अव्यवस्थाको पोल खुल्दै छन् । चरम बेरोजगारी, ९–१० प्रतिशतसम्मको मुद्रास्फीति, बेलगाम सरकारी खर्च र बेरुजु, बैंक–वित्तीय संस्था र सहकारीका घोटालाहरू, धराशायी घरजग्गा कारोबार– यी सबैले तृतीय क्षेत्रको विकास सहज हुने देखिँदैन । फलस्वरूप आर्थिक वृद्धि स्थिर हुने देखिँदैन ।
तथ्यांक आधारित भएकाले विभागको यो अनुमान सही होस् भन्ने शुभकामना आमजनताको रहे पनि एकै समयको सरकारी निकायको एउटै तथ्यांकसमेत भिन्दाभिन्दै हुने बिगतको अनुभव पनि हामीसँग छ । जस्तो, आर्थिक सर्भेक्षण ०६९÷७० मा गरिबीको रेखामुनिको जनसंख्या २३.८ प्रतिशत भनिरहँदा त्यही वर्षको त्रिवर्षीय योजनाको आधारपत्रमा यो संख्या ४१.५ प्रतिशत लेखिएको भेटिन्छ । यसैगरी, त्यसैताका अक्सफोर्ड भन्ने एक ब्रिटिस अनुसन्धान संस्थाले गरेको स्वतन्त्र मूल्यांकनमा ६० प्रतिशतभन्दा बढी जनता गरिबीको रेखामुनि रहेको तथ्यांक प्रकाशित भएकोे थियो, जसबाट देशमा एउटा ठूलो हलचल नै आयो, जो पछि ‘गणना गर्ने विधिको भिन्नताले भएको’ भन्ने विज्ञप्ति नेपाल सरकारले निकालेर मात्र शान्त भएको थियो । हालै अन्तर्राष्ट्रिय मुद्राकोषको ‘विश्व आर्थिक परिदृश्य २०१४’ मा देखाएअनुसार नेपालको आर्थिक वृद्धिदर घट्ने र प्रतिव्यक्ति आय घटेर ६ सय ४० डलर पुग्ने देखिएको छ । विश्व बैंक र एसियाली विकास बैंकले पनि आर्थिक वृद्धि घट्ने नै अनुमान गरेका छन् । यी दुवै संस्थाका अनुसार नेपालको वृद्धिदर ४.५ प्रतिशत रहने देखिएको छ, जबकि केन्द्रीय तथ्यांक विभागले यो वर्ष ५.१५ प्रतिशतको वृद्धिदर हासिल हुने तथ्यांक भर्खर सार्वजनिक गरेको छ, यस्ता खाले विरोधाभासपूर्ण दृश्य यसपल्ट हाम्रो तथ्यांकको नहोस् ।
तर आर्थिक वृद्धि तथ्यांक विभागले सोचेअनुसार नै हुँदा पनि यसले हाम्रो दिगो प्रगतिको संकेत भने दिएको छैन । देशमा भित्रिएको विप्रेषण र स्वदेशको आयको ९०.५ प्रतिशत खर्च, उपभोग्य वस्तु अर्थात् खान, लाउन र विलासी वस्तुको खरिदमै भएको छ, जो स्वदेशी उद्योग नहुँदा विदेशबाटै आयातीत हुन्छ । यी आयहरू पूर्वाधार निर्माण या बचतमा गएको छैन, जो दुर्भाग्यपूर्ण हो । आर्थिक वृद्धिको यो सम्भाव्य तथ्यांक गत २ वर्षको राम्रो मनसुन जनित हो भन्ने कुरा स्वयं तथ्यांक विभागले नै स्वीकार गरेको छ । हाम्रा पौरखी युवाहरूको विदेश जाने लर्काे हामीले रोक्न सकेका छैनौं, काम गरेर निर्धक्क बाँच्न सक्ने वातावरण दिन सकेका छैनौं । त्यसैले हाम्रा कृषि गरिँदै रहेका खेत–खरिहान अहिले बाँझो हुँदै गएका छन् । हाम्रा उद्योग–व्यापारलाई फस्टाउने वातावरण दिन सकेका छैनौं, बन्द–हड्ताल र चन्दाआतंक रोक्न सकेका छैनौं । विकासको खम्बा मानिने सडक र बिजुलीजस्ता पूर्वाधार ठाउँ–ठाउँमा पु¥याउन सकेका छैनौं, लोडसेडिङ र इन्धन अभाव उद्योगले सधैं भोग्नुपरेको छ । फलस्वरूप उद्योग, व्यापार, कृषि चलाउन छिमेकी देशबाट श्रमिकको भरथेक गर्नुपर्ने देखिँदैछ । वासिङ्गटनस्थित ‘विश्व मौद्रिक एकाई’ (ग्लोबल फाइनान्सियल इन्टिग्रिटी) को तथ्यांकअनुसार सन् २००२ देखि २०१३ सम्ममा नेपालबाट ८ अर्ब डलर विदेश पलायन भएको छ, जसमा सन् २००९ र २०१० मा मात्रै क्रमशः १.५५ अर्ब र १.८८ अर्ब पलायन भएको थियो, जसअनुसार नेपाल संसारकै उच्च विदेशी मुद्रा पलायन हुने देशमा पर्छ । अध्ययनकर्ताहरूका अनुसार यो पलायनको मुख्य कारण देशमा बढ्दो अपराध, अपहरण, फिरौती, करछली र भ्रष्टाचारबाट अर्जित सम्पत्तिको सेरोफेरो हो । यसरी देशको मौद्रिक र श्रमशक्तिको ठूलो पुँजी हरेक वर्ष पलायन हुँदै जाने हो भने हाम्रो आर्थिक, सामाजिक या राजनीतिक– कुनै खाले प्रगति हुने सम्भावना यथार्थमा भन्दा भाषण र कागजमा मात्र सीमित हुने दुर्भाग्य बढ्दै जाने देखिन्छ ।
यो आर्थिक वृद्धिको स्थिरता र अझै उकालो लगाउनका लागि जुनसुकै दलको शासन भए पनि पूर्वाधार निर्माणमा राज्यले सम्पूर्ण ध्यान दिनुपर्छ र प्रगतिलाई कडाइका साथ अनुगमन गर्नुपर्छ । यसका साथै आर्थिक विकासको मेरुदण्डका रूपमा रहेको कृषिलाई आधुनिकरण गर्दै जानु अनिवार्य छ ।
Monday, May 5, 2014
Loss of morality : Unethical businessmen: Republica May 4, 2014
Business is done for profit but it should be based on ethics. Businessmen are liable to add the value of their service. This is natural, moral and legal. If the businessmen’s service jeopardizes the life of people, community or nature, it is unethical. Adulterations of products, cheating in measurement, cartel for unnatural price hikes, evading taxes with false bills or statements are unethical acts.
These days Nepalis experience several immoral activities in business. Unethical dealings by businessmen have blatantly violated costumers’ rights. Recently a group of petrol transporters were caught red-handed stealing petroleum. At a time when the country is suffering from high shortage of petro products, 17,000 liters of stolen petrol was found at Rupandehi district. Investigation has shown that transport businessmen were behind the crime. People have been accusing petroleum traders and Nepal Oil Corporation for several dubious activities such as cheating in measurement, adulteration and unnatural price hike. Detection of such theft has only verified their accusation and also raised suspicion that such theft occurs at many other places, on different transportation routes.
We have hardly few business areas uninvolved in such unethical jobs. Adulteration of food with inedible chemicals, even poison, was reported time and again in Sweets and Gundpak shops. It was found that the confectioners mixed rotten substance in their products. Fish transported from India were found deepened in Formalin, a highly toxic chemical that produces inflammation in stomach causing gastritis and even causes death. Fruits, especially used in Nepal for weak patients, elderly and children, were found sprinkled with Borax and other toxic chemicals as preservatives.
High levels of fatal toxic pesticides are used by vegetable farmers. Due to ignorance or negligence, such pesticides are not handled safely. Farmers, especially females in Kavre and Sindhupalchok districts, didn’t even wash hands properly after spraying pesticides. They were found infected with cancer. That is why a large number of farmers have now stopped the use of such pesticides. However, they changed their habit as it threatened their life. They were not worried about the customer’s health.
Every year thousands of people die from drinking locally produced cheap alcohol, made of rotten stuffs. Many mineral water bottles were found with high contamination and bottling companies were found using untreated water taken directly from polluted sources. Last year, many dairy farms in the capital were found selling milk products contaminated with Coliform bacteria, which originates from fecal contamination. Pasteurized milk product should contain no Coliform but many were found with 24,000 times higher number of bacteria than allowed.
Observing the trend in increasing crowd of patients at dispensaries can make one easily understand the effect of increasing adulterated or toxic food taken by people. We can find medical shops mushrooming at every corner where the drug is sold by amateurs. Law dictates that drugs must be sold only by a pharmacologist. But drugs are sold even without doctor’s prescription. Besides this, large illicit drug business is in operation that sells duplicate or fake drugs, expired drugs and even narcotics.
It is not only the food business that is doing such mischief. Goldsmiths were found adulterating 18-carat gold with lead. Gold is smuggled from China or a third country and transported to India. Red sandalwood is smuggled from India and transported to China. Even when goods are imported legally, businessmen cheat the customs by unnaturally lowering its real value. Goods are smuggled three times more than through customs offices.
Shopping malls and supermarkets charging exorbitant taxes and VATs from customers were accused of not paying back these taxes to the government and even not paying electricity, water and other bills for several years. This is why in the last few weeks; Kathmandu Municipality stopped collecting garbage and other facilities of many malls. Last year, 568 business farms were accused of producing fake VAT bills worth more than seven billion rupees. Cooperatives, finance institutions and network businesses like Oriental Cooperative, Unity Networking and Gold Quest have swindled millions from the innocent people.
Social sector like education and health are no exception to unethical behavior. Privatization drive opened the gate for businessmen to manipulate social activities. The demand side was expanding with increasing population whereas remittance and other income sources were making people more capable of spending money. Health and education service are the essential services that allured such group of people having bulgy wallet but virtually little or no knowledge and interest in the gravity and social responsibility associated with such services. Large investment in these sectors led to opening of many new schools, colleges and hospitals but most were used just to make profit.
When we hear about unethical incidences like textbook scandals, bribing the examination board, bribing University officers for getting affiliation, we can easily guess the dubious dealings of businessmen. The long hunger strike of Dr Govinda KC exposed the maneuvering of medical mafia. We hear of ‘briefcase’ schools that do not exist physically and fake teachers get salary. We also hear of uterus operation of thousands of women who really do not need such operation but the health camp organizers coax them for this. The motive behind such crimes was to get government’s incentive of Rs. 12000 to 15000 per operation. Recently, Health Department has stopped the incentives after finding such misdeeds.
Such corruption has spread in business due to weak monitoring, wrongdoers going scot-free, negligence of government for customer’s rights, weak customer forums: in totality, the weak implementation of law-and-order. The public expects a people-centered system with stern law and order provisions. Just a month ago, we also saw fresh set of Federation of Nepalese Chamber of Commerce and Industries committee members led by Pradeep Jung Pandey. FNCCI and Pandey have vowed for democracy, value and business ethics. They should fulfill their commitments. People’s hope also lies with the customer forums that are in need of robust overhaul to make their presence felt. Nepali public and customers expect FNCCI, the Government and public forums for their dedication and strength to maintain value-based business and customer’s rights at the upmost.
These days Nepalis experience several immoral activities in business. Unethical dealings by businessmen have blatantly violated costumers’ rights. Recently a group of petrol transporters were caught red-handed stealing petroleum. At a time when the country is suffering from high shortage of petro products, 17,000 liters of stolen petrol was found at Rupandehi district. Investigation has shown that transport businessmen were behind the crime. People have been accusing petroleum traders and Nepal Oil Corporation for several dubious activities such as cheating in measurement, adulteration and unnatural price hike. Detection of such theft has only verified their accusation and also raised suspicion that such theft occurs at many other places, on different transportation routes.
We have hardly few business areas uninvolved in such unethical jobs. Adulteration of food with inedible chemicals, even poison, was reported time and again in Sweets and Gundpak shops. It was found that the confectioners mixed rotten substance in their products. Fish transported from India were found deepened in Formalin, a highly toxic chemical that produces inflammation in stomach causing gastritis and even causes death. Fruits, especially used in Nepal for weak patients, elderly and children, were found sprinkled with Borax and other toxic chemicals as preservatives.
High levels of fatal toxic pesticides are used by vegetable farmers. Due to ignorance or negligence, such pesticides are not handled safely. Farmers, especially females in Kavre and Sindhupalchok districts, didn’t even wash hands properly after spraying pesticides. They were found infected with cancer. That is why a large number of farmers have now stopped the use of such pesticides. However, they changed their habit as it threatened their life. They were not worried about the customer’s health.
Every year thousands of people die from drinking locally produced cheap alcohol, made of rotten stuffs. Many mineral water bottles were found with high contamination and bottling companies were found using untreated water taken directly from polluted sources. Last year, many dairy farms in the capital were found selling milk products contaminated with Coliform bacteria, which originates from fecal contamination. Pasteurized milk product should contain no Coliform but many were found with 24,000 times higher number of bacteria than allowed.
Observing the trend in increasing crowd of patients at dispensaries can make one easily understand the effect of increasing adulterated or toxic food taken by people. We can find medical shops mushrooming at every corner where the drug is sold by amateurs. Law dictates that drugs must be sold only by a pharmacologist. But drugs are sold even without doctor’s prescription. Besides this, large illicit drug business is in operation that sells duplicate or fake drugs, expired drugs and even narcotics.
It is not only the food business that is doing such mischief. Goldsmiths were found adulterating 18-carat gold with lead. Gold is smuggled from China or a third country and transported to India. Red sandalwood is smuggled from India and transported to China. Even when goods are imported legally, businessmen cheat the customs by unnaturally lowering its real value. Goods are smuggled three times more than through customs offices.
Shopping malls and supermarkets charging exorbitant taxes and VATs from customers were accused of not paying back these taxes to the government and even not paying electricity, water and other bills for several years. This is why in the last few weeks; Kathmandu Municipality stopped collecting garbage and other facilities of many malls. Last year, 568 business farms were accused of producing fake VAT bills worth more than seven billion rupees. Cooperatives, finance institutions and network businesses like Oriental Cooperative, Unity Networking and Gold Quest have swindled millions from the innocent people.
Social sector like education and health are no exception to unethical behavior. Privatization drive opened the gate for businessmen to manipulate social activities. The demand side was expanding with increasing population whereas remittance and other income sources were making people more capable of spending money. Health and education service are the essential services that allured such group of people having bulgy wallet but virtually little or no knowledge and interest in the gravity and social responsibility associated with such services. Large investment in these sectors led to opening of many new schools, colleges and hospitals but most were used just to make profit.
When we hear about unethical incidences like textbook scandals, bribing the examination board, bribing University officers for getting affiliation, we can easily guess the dubious dealings of businessmen. The long hunger strike of Dr Govinda KC exposed the maneuvering of medical mafia. We hear of ‘briefcase’ schools that do not exist physically and fake teachers get salary. We also hear of uterus operation of thousands of women who really do not need such operation but the health camp organizers coax them for this. The motive behind such crimes was to get government’s incentive of Rs. 12000 to 15000 per operation. Recently, Health Department has stopped the incentives after finding such misdeeds.
Such corruption has spread in business due to weak monitoring, wrongdoers going scot-free, negligence of government for customer’s rights, weak customer forums: in totality, the weak implementation of law-and-order. The public expects a people-centered system with stern law and order provisions. Just a month ago, we also saw fresh set of Federation of Nepalese Chamber of Commerce and Industries committee members led by Pradeep Jung Pandey. FNCCI and Pandey have vowed for democracy, value and business ethics. They should fulfill their commitments. People’s hope also lies with the customer forums that are in need of robust overhaul to make their presence felt. Nepali public and customers expect FNCCI, the Government and public forums for their dedication and strength to maintain value-based business and customer’s rights at the upmost.
Wednesday, April 30, 2014
शहरी सार्वजनिक यातायात को बेथिति बारे गोपको लेख : April 29
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Sunday, April 20, 2014
"The way out: :Oil crisis" in Republica April 24
Petroleum shortage has once again hit the life of urban population hard. Long queue of vehicles can be seen in front of petrol pumps. Nepal Oil Corporation (NOC) says that the supply will resume in a day or two but customers don’t believe this statement.
This shortage appeared as Indian Oil Corporation (IOC) lowered its supply to Nepal demanding the outstanding payment of Rs 5.18 billion. But, as usual, NOC is unable to arrange the amount and the government also turns deaf ear to the NOC problem. The current Finance Minister Dr Ram Sharan Mahat is considered to be strongly against fuel subsidy. It seems easy supply will not resume anytime soon.
Moreover, it is not one-time problem. In fact, it is the second most recurrent problem of urban Nepal after load-shedding. The reality is that Nepal has no oil mines, so it has to import oil from international markets where the price goes up all the time.
According to the 1974 agreement between NOC and IOC, IOC bids for crude gasoline from international market and supplies it to Nepal as per the latter’s demand. Nepal has to pay IOC and payment is revised twice a year. Due to inadequate numbers of tankers to carry petroleum products and insufficient NOC storage capacity, private sector plays the complementary role of transportation and supply. However, NOC takes up several responsibilities including pricing, quality control, and monitoring of technical and other losses.
Each of these activities provides scope for illegal operations, making the price, quality and supply of petroleum problematic.
Diesel price affects the price of all imported and transported items including food, clothing and luxury goods. Consumer Price Index (CPI) that measures the price of goods indicates that between 2000 and 2013, price of petroleum products has increased around 450 times whereas the price for other goods increased only 170 times. This shows how helpless we are to the vagaries of international fuel cartels like OPEC.
Fuel price in Nepal is government-regulated. Whenever it increases, student unions take to the streets. To bring an end to the strikes, government often rolls back the price and increases subsidy. As a result, the government has accumulated a huge financial burden.
If every other commodity like food, clothing, and medicine along with automobiles are sold in the market at the purchased price plus excise and profits, why can’t the same be done for petrol, diesel, kerosene, and LPG? In the name of fuel subsidy government as well as NOC seem to be playing lose-lose game. As NOC has to sell petroleum at a price much lower than the purchase price it has already incurred a debt of Rs. 34 billion from different sources. This current shortage has evolved from the additional due payment of Rs. 5.18 billion that is to be paid to the IOC; IOC has already cut 35 percent of its regular supply to Nepal.
Successive governments have tried to stabilize the fuel price just to please the public. They have created large deficits. Moreover, every government recruits party faithful at the NOC. Government officers enjoy privilege petrol and diesel quota. It all proves that NOC is not doing business but has become a party-palace where the powerful make merry. Most employees at the NOC are neither technicians nor business experts.
NOC’s involvement in corruption is clear. From 1997 to 1999 the price of gas decreased in the international market but NOC did not lower the price. Despite the fact that NOC was continuously losing billions, in 1999 it distributed bonus to employees worth Rs 174 million, amounting to 30 months’ salary. They took allowances even for washing clothes.
Investigation found that NOC staff accepted bribes from transporters and dealers who adulterate the petroleum products or cheat in measurement. Such problems have appeared due to the wrong recruiting process, internal corruption, inefficiency among workers and monopoly of NOC in petroleum business.
Obviously, it is not only NOC that is to be blamed; the private sector is equally responsible for the mess. The associations of petroleum dealers, transporters, gas companies and gas dealers have created a vicious cartel cycle in the country. They use pressure tactics like stalling supply and creating artificial crisis in the market to raise profits and commission margins. Energy experts also say that the Indian government uses petro weapon to keep Nepali government honest.
There are two options to manage the fuel problem. First, the market should be opened for the private sector and the NOC be dissolved. Second, NOC should be overhauled by bringing proficient staffs. The first option seems unfeasible for years. Private sector, at present, is less capable of international business or being accepted by the IOC. Until then the role of NOC is paramount. However, the supervision and working modality of NOC should be revised.
Many have suggested an autonomous price determining body. Also, the government should stop fuel subsidy that is mostly abused. Rather, the poor can be provided identity cards that entitle them to subsidized product. To mitigate the adverse effect on general public due to the increment of fuel price, the tax rate should be lowered.
The cumulative burden of the NOC is about Rs 40 billion, more than our budget for health or physical infrastructure. In 2013/14 the government allocated Rs. 30.4 billion for health and Rs. 35.3 billion for infrastructure. If the government stops paying NOC’s debts, more investment in these areas would be possible.
The money thus saved can be utilized for the exploration of cooking gas and other fuel sources. Natural gas has been reported at many locations such as Dailekh, Pyuthan, Dang and even in Kathmandu Valley at Pulchowk and Chobhar. The exploration of petrol initiated by a Canadian team few years ago had shown possibility of finding petroleum at some places.
This shortage appeared as Indian Oil Corporation (IOC) lowered its supply to Nepal demanding the outstanding payment of Rs 5.18 billion. But, as usual, NOC is unable to arrange the amount and the government also turns deaf ear to the NOC problem. The current Finance Minister Dr Ram Sharan Mahat is considered to be strongly against fuel subsidy. It seems easy supply will not resume anytime soon.
Moreover, it is not one-time problem. In fact, it is the second most recurrent problem of urban Nepal after load-shedding. The reality is that Nepal has no oil mines, so it has to import oil from international markets where the price goes up all the time.
According to the 1974 agreement between NOC and IOC, IOC bids for crude gasoline from international market and supplies it to Nepal as per the latter’s demand. Nepal has to pay IOC and payment is revised twice a year. Due to inadequate numbers of tankers to carry petroleum products and insufficient NOC storage capacity, private sector plays the complementary role of transportation and supply. However, NOC takes up several responsibilities including pricing, quality control, and monitoring of technical and other losses.
Each of these activities provides scope for illegal operations, making the price, quality and supply of petroleum problematic.
Diesel price affects the price of all imported and transported items including food, clothing and luxury goods. Consumer Price Index (CPI) that measures the price of goods indicates that between 2000 and 2013, price of petroleum products has increased around 450 times whereas the price for other goods increased only 170 times. This shows how helpless we are to the vagaries of international fuel cartels like OPEC.
Fuel price in Nepal is government-regulated. Whenever it increases, student unions take to the streets. To bring an end to the strikes, government often rolls back the price and increases subsidy. As a result, the government has accumulated a huge financial burden.
If every other commodity like food, clothing, and medicine along with automobiles are sold in the market at the purchased price plus excise and profits, why can’t the same be done for petrol, diesel, kerosene, and LPG? In the name of fuel subsidy government as well as NOC seem to be playing lose-lose game. As NOC has to sell petroleum at a price much lower than the purchase price it has already incurred a debt of Rs. 34 billion from different sources. This current shortage has evolved from the additional due payment of Rs. 5.18 billion that is to be paid to the IOC; IOC has already cut 35 percent of its regular supply to Nepal.
Successive governments have tried to stabilize the fuel price just to please the public. They have created large deficits. Moreover, every government recruits party faithful at the NOC. Government officers enjoy privilege petrol and diesel quota. It all proves that NOC is not doing business but has become a party-palace where the powerful make merry. Most employees at the NOC are neither technicians nor business experts.
NOC’s involvement in corruption is clear. From 1997 to 1999 the price of gas decreased in the international market but NOC did not lower the price. Despite the fact that NOC was continuously losing billions, in 1999 it distributed bonus to employees worth Rs 174 million, amounting to 30 months’ salary. They took allowances even for washing clothes.
Investigation found that NOC staff accepted bribes from transporters and dealers who adulterate the petroleum products or cheat in measurement. Such problems have appeared due to the wrong recruiting process, internal corruption, inefficiency among workers and monopoly of NOC in petroleum business.
Obviously, it is not only NOC that is to be blamed; the private sector is equally responsible for the mess. The associations of petroleum dealers, transporters, gas companies and gas dealers have created a vicious cartel cycle in the country. They use pressure tactics like stalling supply and creating artificial crisis in the market to raise profits and commission margins. Energy experts also say that the Indian government uses petro weapon to keep Nepali government honest.
There are two options to manage the fuel problem. First, the market should be opened for the private sector and the NOC be dissolved. Second, NOC should be overhauled by bringing proficient staffs. The first option seems unfeasible for years. Private sector, at present, is less capable of international business or being accepted by the IOC. Until then the role of NOC is paramount. However, the supervision and working modality of NOC should be revised.
Many have suggested an autonomous price determining body. Also, the government should stop fuel subsidy that is mostly abused. Rather, the poor can be provided identity cards that entitle them to subsidized product. To mitigate the adverse effect on general public due to the increment of fuel price, the tax rate should be lowered.
The cumulative burden of the NOC is about Rs 40 billion, more than our budget for health or physical infrastructure. In 2013/14 the government allocated Rs. 30.4 billion for health and Rs. 35.3 billion for infrastructure. If the government stops paying NOC’s debts, more investment in these areas would be possible.
The money thus saved can be utilized for the exploration of cooking gas and other fuel sources. Natural gas has been reported at many locations such as Dailekh, Pyuthan, Dang and even in Kathmandu Valley at Pulchowk and Chobhar. The exploration of petrol initiated by a Canadian team few years ago had shown possibility of finding petroleum at some places.
Monday, April 7, 2014
Sick City (MyRepublica April 7, 2014)
Sick city
Garbage and solid waste management has
become an incurable disease in all our cities
become an incurable disease in all our cities
Clean and green Kathmandu sounds like science fiction. Nepal Government and Kathmandu Metropolitan City (KMC) Office have announced to make the valley clean and green for the upcoming 18th South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation summit in November 2014. Inhabitants of the valley are skeptical about such announcements. Do we need a clean city only for SAARC summit and not for our own sake?
When we visit a city in developed countries, the first impression we get is its cleanness, greenery and the open space. There they levy tax, often in good amount, from all who utilize the metropolitan facilities. In response, all essential facilities for the inhabitants are provided. In European cities, for example, we can find tea parlors and vendors all over the street but they have to pay a handsome tax to the municipality for doing business there. In Vienna, for example, vehicle parking charge inside the city is so high that most people including white-collar officers and executives would rather use public transportation than their personal cars.
When we visit a city in developed countries, the first impression we get is its cleanness, greenery and the open space. There they levy tax, often in good amount, from all who utilize the metropolitan facilities. In response, all essential facilities for the inhabitants are provided. In European cities, for example, we can find tea parlors and vendors all over the street but they have to pay a handsome tax to the municipality for doing business there. In Vienna, for example, vehicle parking charge inside the city is so high that most people including white-collar officers and executives would rather use public transportation than their personal cars.
However, here we often see municipality trucks chasing the street vendors. Kathmandu footpaths are always covered with cheap wares and their vendors who have not to pay any tax. Parking spaces too are free of cost. In an already congested city, free parking has made it unmanageably crowded. KMC should have arranged paid parking space at different corners of the city. People should realize that the city cannot allow parking anywhere and everywhere.
Garbage and solid waste management has become an incurable problem in all our cities. Non-governmental Organizations like Safai Nepal have made significant contributions to the collection and transportation of garbage of Kathmandu. The city would have been horrible place to live in without them. However, frequent protests by the locals from the nearby ‘land fill sites’ creates problem in garbage disposal.
While private agencies are doing their best for garbage management, the government takes no initiative for sustainable solid waste management. Solid waste of our cities contains 80-85 percent biodegradable waste that can be converted into manure. Rest of the garbage contains non-biodegradable materials which can be recycled. GTZ, DANIDA and few other INGOs have already proposed for technical and financial support for such recycling project but the government has not accepted this due to unknown reasons. Such recycle plants seem essential here.
In the meantime, municipalities should monitor private collectors so that they will be reliable and efficient. Despite all the effort of municipalities and NGOs we find pile of garbage in the open roads, street corners and rivers. Principally, public should not only be educated but also punished for littering their household and commercial garbage at public places.
In the last few months a momentum has been created to clean rivers of Kathmandu. Nepal Telecom sends SMS inviting all to participate in the cleaning of Bagmati River every Saturday. Many dignitaries and common people have participated in the cleaning program. While such drive shows awareness of people and builds social harmony which is much needed for urban societies, it has contributed very little to the cleanliness of the river.
Firstly, not only Bagmati is polluted but all rivers in the valley are highly polluted. Secondly, people have not stopped polluting the river even after the cleaning campaign. Recently, in some newspapers snaps of toilets having direct outpouring in Bagmati was published. At so many places wastes are still disposed directly in the river. If municipalities cannot provide alternatives for the management of public drainage and enforce strong laws to stop river polluters, the Saturday medicine cannot cure this epidemic.
Besides garbage, desertification and concrete jungle is a big problem in Kathmandu. A city is lively and beautiful only if it has sufficient vegetation and green parks. Development planners have never given priority to green-issues. Urban development should always go hand-in-hand with nature conservation. Municipalities have paper plans for ‘greenery on the roof’ but they have no plans for greenery on the ground: by roadsides, river banks, or public places.
These days, roads are being widened and reconstructed in Kathmandu. There seems to be no plan for plantation of saplings. Small shrubs are needed at the pathway so that it will help the pedestrians get shade in hot summer. It is said that ‘tree is life’ and we need trees, shrubs, bushes in the city to make city-dwellers’ life healthy.
Green parks are essential part of a city. However, we have no parks to speak of in Kathmandu. A few parks like Ratnapark and Balajupark are in no good condition. Central part of the city has dense population and high air pollution but has no green parks for balance. KMC should find open public lands and conserve nature. Some local clubs are trying to preserve public places for making parks and KMC can encourage and assist them on it.
The author is a professor at the Department of Statistics, Amrit Science Campus
Wednesday, March 19, 2014
Nepal’s R&D funding: Not enough (My Republica March 19, 2014)
Nepal
has now become one of the darkest countries in the world due to its remarkably
long hours of power cuts and misplaced development priorities. Once a
relatively self-dependent country in agricultural production and semi-finished
goods like sugar, leather products and cement, Nepal has now been transformed
into a nation deprived of almost all basic requirements of life including food,
clothing, energy and technology. What should be the focus of our development
planning and where should we spend the major chunk of our budget is a topic
that is often debated in the media by our economists and development experts
alike. There is always disagreement over which sector deserves our priority:
energy, education, health, roads, agriculture or tourism infrastructure? But
certain areas where comparatively smaller investments can generate really big
returns are often neglected in such debates.
If we compare the relatively closed era of say 1950-1990 with the relatively forward-facing 2000-2013 period in the development trajectory of the country, there are a few significant differences. Compared to the first era, we now have a relatively better functioning democracy, which means more people centered decisions, less red tape and good governance. However, the troubles and toils of people have magnified. There are more jobless people now than ever before. For many, the work they do is not sufficient to sustain their livelihood. This is why around 1,500 people are departing the country on a daily basis. An equal number of people cross our open border by road every day. This high migration rate has drained the country labor force in the last few years.
If we compare the relatively closed era of say 1950-1990 with the relatively forward-facing 2000-2013 period in the development trajectory of the country, there are a few significant differences. Compared to the first era, we now have a relatively better functioning democracy, which means more people centered decisions, less red tape and good governance. However, the troubles and toils of people have magnified. There are more jobless people now than ever before. For many, the work they do is not sufficient to sustain their livelihood. This is why around 1,500 people are departing the country on a daily basis. An equal number of people cross our open border by road every day. This high migration rate has drained the country labor force in the last few years.
The population has increased from 18 million in the census of 1991 to 27 million in 2011. The added people need more food, more jobs and better human resource management. However, this population growth is considered normal and not unnatural like the baby-boom that occurred in the western world after Second World War. The three most populated countries in China, India and the US, all have managed their high population pressures rather well. They considered their people as opportunities for national development. China, the most populated country in the world, has also one of the cheapest labor forces in the world that in turn lure foreign investors, contributing to its already big FDI pool.
However, China has also been training its human resources to better understand basic technology. Hence, it is not the 2.2 population growth rate that has slowed Nepal’s economic growth (to around 2 percent), nor is corruption solely responsible, or the failure of planners, or slackness of implementation agencies. All these might be responsible. But, above all, it is the absence of tech savvy among our planners and policymakers to better understand technology’s important role in the history of mankind that is hindering our development.
If we study the rise and fall of development in the world, we find a strong correlation between scientific research and the development of a country. No country has developed without investing in Research and Development (R&D). History shows that all powerful countries of the past had big interest in R&D and funded it well. In 17th, 18th and early 19th century, the UK was a hub of scientific research. Most of the discoveries in physics, chemistry, mathematics, statistics, botany and zoology were made there. Large government funds were made available to academia for scientific research. There were Royal Societies for different branches of science (that exists until now). Many scientists were conferred national honors. They were called Sir (Sir Isaac Newton) and appointed in scientific academies. The famous Scottish mathematician and physicist William Thomson, well known as Lord Kelvin, was honored as a Lord, a member of the Upper House of the UK.
The government spent big on scientific innovations. This made the country the most powerful and influential for many centuries. But after the Second World War, the UK’s premier position has been replaced by another great power. From the early 19th century, the US gradually began to take over the mantle of the R&D hub of the world. Today, the US spends a big chunk of its budget on R&D. Other than funding from several private companies, US Federal R&D funding (which is only one major stream of the governmental support) in 2013 was US $138 billion. According to World Bank’s data, US government was spending around 2.8 percent of its GDP for R&D until 2009, which has been raised by the Obama administration to three percent.
The increasing proportion of R&D spending relative to GDP shows more government inclination for scientific research. Also, and perhaps unsurprisingly, there is a strong correlation between this proportion and development of a country. According to World Bank in 2011, this spending was highest for Israel (4.39 percent) and lowest for some poor African countries like Madagascar (0.11 percent), Burundi (0.12 percent) and Gambia (0.13 percent). Many European countries spend between 2-3 percent of their national budget and the East Asian tiger South Korea spends 3.74 percent. Nepal has never given research and innovation high priority. No government, even after the first advent of democracy in 1950, has seriously thought about investing in research. According to a 2011 NAST report, the government that year allocated a budget of Rs. 443.611 million on R&D which is about 0.37 percent of GDP. Late professor Dayanand Bajracharya often urged the government to raise its research spending to at least 1.3 percent of GDP.
On the verge of drafting a new constitution, the government should also give due attention to the development of science and technology. The technology related to mobile, internet and computer have revolutionized the way Nepalis live. Such adopted technologies have changed the lifestyles of even the rural folks. This hard fact must never be lost on our planners. I believe giving a little more attention to R&D will in the long run keep able brains in Nepal and in the process accelerate national development.
Saturday, March 1, 2014
The hydro route: My Republica : MARCH 2, 2014
After months of wrangling the new government has taken a near full shape. It is a pleasure that the government is led by a Gandhian democrat Sushil Koirala. The number of promising faces in the cabinet has given some hope to the people. Koirala government has two main responsibilities: promulgating the constitution within a year and at the same time taking measures to address the problems in various sectors. To meet the second objective, the government needs to work on several fronts and fill the vacuum created by past governments whose focus on constitution had pushed development issues to the backburner. Thus the current government needs to identify key priority areas and work on them. Many economists and development experts have recommended a plan-holiday, which seems advisable as the nature of this coalition government is transitory.
But I would say the government should make energy its top priority. Nepal is one of the darkest countries in the world with long hours of power-cut. In winter there is more than 12 hours of daily power outage, which negatively impacts the country’s economy, education, livelihood and social harmony. Industries have been using imported fossil fuels for survival. Same is the story of other service sectors like hotels, national/international offices, hospitals and private colleges. Likewise, a number of households have been using inverters that store electric power in batteries. People are free to use such inverters if they can afford them. But such use results in 10 to 20 percent energy loss. Besides, it also creates inequality in the society—allowing only well-to-do to use these devices and letting the rest to grapple with darkness.  Unemployment has magnified in recent years. As past governments failed to address this problem, thousands of promising youth are leaving the country each day to find work. Unemployment cannot be solved solely by focusing on industrialization, education, technology and/or good governance. Developing enough energy is as crucial. Once the government launches energy projects in massive scales, it will create job opportunities for millions. In the long run it will help improve ever-increasing trade imbalance that is estimated to cross Rs 500 billion this year. Industries cannot be run without adequate energy, nor can health and education establishments. Due to the abundance of high altitude water sources, hydroelectricity is our most promising source of energy. Solar power, fossil fuel, biomass, and hydropower are also used to generate energy in Nepal. But two factors should determine which source to depend on primarily: cost and environment friendliness. But fossil fuel, coal or gas is neither cost friendly nor environment friendly. Hydroelectricity is the best option. But despite having abundance of rivers, we have not been able to utilize them fully. After more than 100 years of first hydroelectricity generation at Pharping in 1911, we have only been able to generate about 750 MW power so far, less than one percent of the estimated potential. Even today 60 percent of population have no access to electricity and depends on firewood or other means for illumination and cooking. The daily energy demand exceeds 1500 MW but we can generate only around 400 MW during the summer. Receding water level during the winter results in low generation. To solve this crisis, we need to develop reservoir systems instead of depending solely on run-of-the-river systems. Or we will always have energy crisis in winter and have to import it from India at a steep price. According to International Energy Agency (IEA), hydroelectricity accounts for only 16 percent of total energy in the world. China, Brazil, Canada and the US together generate 52 percent of total hydroelectricity. The top-ranked China produces about 700 terawatt (1 TW=10 million MW) hydroelectricity. Running large hydro-projects is costly. Thus private sector should be encouraged to invest. Citizen’s Investment Trust (CIT) and Nepal Telecom must be appreciated for investing in around 456 MW power projects so far. We need to encourage banks and financial institutions to join the fray. Nepal receives more than Rs 400 billion in yearly remittance. But the hard-earned money is used in purchasing luxury items, adding to our trade deficit. We need to channel remittance into hydro-development. Remittance we receive is sufficient for medium hydro-projects. Thus the new Finance Minister should devise policies to tap this resource. Remittance money is mostly deposited at cooperatives and financial institutions. Cooperative law should be amended to channel this deposit to development projects. The projects concerned should share profits and benefits with those whose money they use. Before the election, Nepali Congress and CPN-UML had promised to produce 500MW electricity in three years. They pledged in their election manifestoes to make the country load-shedding free in the next five years. But the bitter reality is that we have not been able to run mega power projects in recent years. Political parties themselves are responsible for nullifying mega projects like Arun-III, Pancheshwar, West Seti and Upper Karnali. The government needs to ensure that does not happen again. It needs to make energy production and promotion our first priority. This will be an important step in solving a myriad other problems facing the country. |
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