Remittance: a slow poison

केही वर्ष देखि विप्रेषणको जाईफल चाटेर देश मस्त भएको छ | ‘विप्रेषण एउटा प्रदुषित रगत हो, मरिचिका हो जो देशको अर्थतन्त्रमा वग्न थालेपछि देशको आर्थिक र सामाजिक स्वास्थ बिग्रिदै जान्छ’ भन्ने कुरा देखिदै गएको छ | सन् १८१४ तिर भएको ब्रिटीशसंगको गोर्खाली युध्द पछि ‘वीर’ भनि चिनिएका नेपालीलाई तत्कालिन पंजाबका राजा रंजित सिंहले सम्मानपूर्वक आफ्नो सेनामा भर्ति गरी राजधानी लाहोरमा राखे | त्यो विदेशको कमाईनै नेपालमा लाहुरेले ल्याएको पहिलो विप्रेषणको रकम थियो | सन् २००० पछि वदलिएको राजनैतिक परिवेशमा विदेश जानेलाई नेपालले ढोका ठुलोपारेर खोलिदिएको हो | सन् २००० पछि आज सम्ममा पढ्न र काम गर्न भनेर बिदेशिनेको संख्या बर्षेनी बढ्दै छ र देशमा विप्रेषणको वाडी नै आएको छ | सरकारी स्रोत अनुसार सन् २००० देखि २०१२ सम्ममा विदेशमा रोजगारीको लागि श्रम विभागबाट स्विकृती लिनेहरु करिव ३५ लाख छन् तथा शिक्षा विभागबाट पढन जानको लागि स्विकृती लिनेहरु करिव ३ लाख छन् अर्थात् करिव ३७ लाख नेपाली भारत वाहेक अन्य देशमा छन् | उता ‘नेपाल जीवनस्तर सर्वेक्षण २०६६/६७’ ले  नेपालमा प्रतेक तेश्रो घरबाट कम्तिमा एक जना विदेशिएको, विदेशिनेमा करिब ८० प्रतिशत १५-३५ वर्षका युवा भएको र यि विदेशिनेमा करिब ८५ प्रतिशत ग्रामीणभेकका भएको देखाउछ | उता विभिन्न गैरसरकारी संस्था तथा अनुसन्धानकर्ताहरुको अध्ययनमा कानुनी र गैर कानुनी रुपमा विदेशिएका, बेचिएका चेली-बेटी तथा भारतमा भएकालाई समेत जोड्दा झण्डै नेपाल भित्रको जनसंख्या बरावरको संख्या नेपाल बाहिर पनि भएको अनुमान गरेको छ | देशमा बिग्रिदै गएको रोजगारीको स्थिति, वढ्दो महंगी, बन्द-हड्तालको अस्थिरता तथा हरेक दिन त्रिभुवन बिमानस्थलबाट विदेशिनेको संख्या हेर्दा सरकारी तथ्यांक भन्दा निकै ठुलो संख्यामा नेपाली विदेशिएको सहजै अनुमान गर्न सकिन्छ | विप्रेषणको आयबाट २०६९-७० मा नेपालले रु ४३० अर्ब भित्रिएको छ जो कूल-गारस्थ्य-उत्पादन (जीडीपी) को करिव २२ प्रतिशत हो |

माथिका तथ्यांकहरु सर्सर्ती हेर्दा विप्रेषणले देशमा प्रगति गरेको जस्तो देखिन्छ | तर विप्रेषण संग संगै अन्य तथ्यांक पनि केलाउने हो भने दुखलाग्दो स्थिती देखिन्छ | विदेशमा कमाई गर्न २०शौ लाख युवा, जसमा मुख्य ग्रामीण भेगका छन्, बाहिरिदा देशको उत्पादन क्षमता घट्दै गएको छ | अचेल जुनसुकै गाउघर शून्य र उराठलाग्दो हुदैगएको छ | युवाहरु नहुदा कृषि, मेलापात, औषदीमूलो, क्रियाकर्म सम्म गर्ने मान्छे पाउन गारो भैसकेको छ | नेपालको आर्थिक मेरुदण्ड मानिएको कृषिक्षेत्रको बिग्रिदो हालत खाधान्नको भयाबह रुपको बढ्दो आयात ले देखाउछ | २०३०-४० का दशकमा गार्हस्थ उत्पादनको ७० प्रतिशत सम्म धानेको कृषिले हाल ३५ प्रतिशत मात्र धानेको छ | कुनै बेला नेपालबाट निर्यात गरिने चामल अचेल आयात गर्नुपरेको छ | गत २०६९-७० मा चामलको आयात अघिल्लो बर्ष भन्दा २४४ प्रतिशत ले बढेर करिब रु १४ अर्ब भएको छ | यसैगरी भारतबाट रु ४.५ अर्बको तरकारी आयात भएको छ जो अघिल्लो बर्षभन्दा ७५ प्रतिशत बढी हो | बढ्दो आयात र घट्दो निर्यातले गत बर्ष व्यापार घाटा २३.५ प्रतिशत ले बढेर ४७९.८ अर्ब पुगेको छ | विदेशको कमाईमा देशको उर्वर शक्ति भुल्लिदा उत्पादन क्षमता घट्दै गएको देखिन्छ |   

के विप्रेषणले नै अहिलेको देशको खर्च धानेको र आर्थिक सम्बृद्धि ल्याएको हो त ? हामी बाहिरबाट आईरहेको पैसा गन्दै मात्र रमाएका छौ | ढोका खुल्ला राख्दा कति चोर कति किरा फट्यांग्रा घर भित्र पस्दै छन् हेर्न खोजेका छैनौ | गत आर्थिक बर्षमा भित्रेको विप्रेषण जिडीपीको २२ प्रतिशत हो | त्यसै अवधिमा आयात र जिडीपी को अनुपात ३३ प्रतिशत हुन आउछ | यसको अर्थ जिडीपीमा विप्रेषणको अनुपात भन्दा आयातको अनुपात ज्यादै बढी छ | फेरी खाधान्न, बिलाशिताका बस्तु लगायत अन्य उपभोग्य बस्तुको आयात क्रमिक रुपमा विप्रेषण संगै बढ्दै गएको छ | बाहिरबाट जे कमायो त्यो भन्दा बढी बाहिरबाट किन्नु परेको छ भने, विप्रेषणले कसरी आर्थिक सम्बृद्धि ल्यायो ? केही अर्थशास्त्रीहरु तथा विश्वबैंक विप्रेषणले गरिबी घटाईरहेको पनि भन्ने गरेका छन् | यस अवधारणाको कुनै ठोस प्रमाण भने कसैले दिन सकेका छैनन् | यो पैसा एकमुस्ट न भएर छरिएर घर-घरमा पुग्नेहुनाले यसबाट विकासको ठुलो काम हुन सक्दैन | विप्रेषणको रकम घरमा भित्रेको देखिएको छ, तर विदेश जाँदा ति घरका कतिले ऋण बोकाएर गएका छन्, कतिका परिवारले त्यो ऋण तिर्न नसक्दा आत्महत्या गरेका छन् र यसरी आएको पैसा कति खान-पिन लुगाफाटोमा खर्च भएको छ, यो हिसाब कसले गरेका छ र ? यस पंक्तिकरले गरेको एक आर्थिक अनुसन्धानमा विप्रेषणले महगी बढाउने र प्रतेक ११ करोड रुपैयाको विप्रेषण भित्रिदा करिव  १ प्रतिशतले वजार भाउ बढ्ने देखिएको छ | यो विदेशको रोजगारीले नत आफ्नो देशमा केही वन्छ, नत ढुक्क भएर विदेशमा काम पाइरहिन्छ भन्न सकिन्छ | रोजगारीको टन्टा परेन भनेर ढुक्क भएर सुतेको सरकारसंग विदेशको आवश्यकता र निती बदलिएर कामदारहरु एक्काशी देश भित्रिए के गर्ने भन्ने सोच छैन | हालसालै मलेशियामा नेपालीको सट्टा बंगलादेशीलाई कामदिने र यसैगरी अरबमा मुस्लिमल देशका लाई प्राथमिकता दिने भन्ने कुरा निस्केको थियो | अन्तरराष्ट्रिय मुद्राकोषले गरेको अध्यनमा विप्रेषण बढी भित्राउने देशका संस्थागत संरचनाहरु बढी तहस-नहस भएका र यसले भ्रस्टाचार बढाएको समेत देखिएको छ |                    

जति तितो विप्रेषणको आर्थिक पक्ष छ त्यो भन्दा तितो सामाजिक पक्ष छ | ठूलो संख्यामा परिवार टुट्ने र पारपाचुके हुने बढेको छ | ज्यान जोखिम हुने कामबाट मर्ने र झ्यालखान पर्नेको संख्या बढ्दो छ | यसैगरी युवाहरु जो परिवर्तनका नायक हुन् ठुलो संख्यामा विदेशिदा, देशको राजनीतिमा नकारात्मक असार परिरहेको होइन भन्न पनि सकिन्न | महिलाहरुको आत्मनिर्भरता केही बढेको छ, भने महिला यौनकर्मीको भारत ईतर अन्तरराष्ट्रियकारण र विविधिकरण भएको छ | करिब ४ लाख नेपाली महिला पछिल्लो दशकमा यौनकर्मीको रुपमा भारत, खाडी प्रदेश, युरोप अमेरिका देखि अफ्रीका सम्म पुगेको अनुमान गरिएको छ | ‘माईती नेपाल’ जस्ता संस्थालाई भारतमा मात्र वेचियेका चेलीवेटीको समश्या न्यूनीकरण गर्न हम्मे परेको वेलामा यसरी संसारभरि छरिएकाहरुबाट त समश्या झनै विकराल बनेको छ | करिब २ लाख महिला खाडी पुगेको अनुमान छ जसमध्ये अधिकांश महिलाको हालत अत्यन्त दारुण छ किनकि ती देशमा कानुनको राज्य छैन, शेखको राज्य छ | फलस्वरुप, त्यहाँ पुगेका हजारौ महिलाले आत्महत्या गरेको खवर छापिएको छ भने हजारौ गुमनाम नजरबन्द या शहिद भएका छन् | यि यौनकर्मीका कमाई पनि हाम्रो विप्रेषणमा जोडिएको छ |   

सरकार र नितीनिर्माताहरुले विप्रेषणको जाईफल चाटेर मस्त हुन वाहेक युवा शक्तिलाई देश विकासमा लगाउन, देशमा रोजगारीको वातावरण बनाउन, उद्योग धन्दाको वातावरण बनाउन, निर्माण र आर्थिक विकास गर्न खासै सकेका छैनन् | तर केही जाँगरिया युवाहरु आफ्नै वलवुतामा रोजगारीका नया आयामहरु खोल्न लागिपर्दैछन् जसमध्धे कति विदेशको हण्डरखाएर फर्केका पनि छन् | देशभर बेमौसमी तरकारी, टनेल खेति र गोलभेडाको लहर युवाहरुले ल्याएका छन् | कुखुरा पालन र डेरीले काँठको जनजीवन परिवर्तित गर्दै छ | नुवाकोट हुदै ट्राउट माछा लमजुंग, गोर्खा, काब्रे तिर छरिदै छ | सत्तरी करोड लगानी भएको रुपन्देहीको अष्ट्रिच पालन देशमाथिको विश्वासको कोशे ढुंगा हो, जस्ले सन् २००० सम्ममा ८७ अर्बको व्यापारको लक्ष लिएको र करिब ५०० लाई रोजगारी दिइरहेको  छ | मेचीको चिया, संखुवासभाको अलैची, ताप्लेजुंगको हिन्वा रक्शी, मार्फाको ब्रान्डी र गुल्मीको कफी केही पहिले देखि स्थापित कृषिमा आधारित रोजगारी थिए | देशका ग्रामीण क्षेत्रमा नै हुनसक्ने रोजगारीका यस्ता सम्भावनाहरु लाई उजागर गरेका यि युवाहरु लाई सलाम गर्नुपर्छ | नेपालमा ठुलो उद्योगको भविष्य छैन भन्ने तर्क यस पंक्तिकरका पहिलेका लेखमा छन् जो भारत र चीनको तुलनात्मक अध्ययन बाट गरिएको थियो | यसैले भोलिको नेपालको उधमी यस्तै ग्रामीण कृषिमा आधारित साना र मझौला उधमी हुन् | यिनैले भोलि देशमा स्वरोजगारी, उत्पादन वृद्धि र आयात घटाउने काम गर्ने छन् | यस्ता जमातलाई चाहिएको थोरै कुरा हुन् - बन्द हड्ताल लाई बन्दगर्ने, सडक यातायातलाई ग्रामीण भेक सम्म पुर्याउने, र प्राविधिक कृषि र ब्यबस्थापनको केही ज्ञान काम गर्नेलाई दिने | यति गरे कुनै सरकार, पार्टी, (सिंह)दरवारका हाकिम कसैलेपनि रोजगारी दिने चिन्ता गर्नु पर्दैन न त परदेशको अनिश्चित कमाईबाट विकास गर्ने झुठो आश्वासन नै दिनुपर्छ |   

कारोबार दैनिक : मिति: Thursday,26th September 2013

कारोबार दैनिक : मिति: Thursday,26th September 20

दसैंको मुखमा मूल्यवृद्धिको दुर्दशा

केही अर्थशास्त्रीहरूले भारतसँगको यो मुद्राको लगनगाँठो छुट्ट्याउनुपर्ने तर्क दिइरहँदा केही पूर्वगभर्नर, पूर्वयोजना आयोग उपाध्यक्ष र केही अर्थशास्त्रीहरू ‘डलर महँगो हँुदैमा आत्तिनुपर्दैन, ...आकाशै खस्यो भन्ने ठान्नु हँुदैन’ जस्ता हास्यास्पद अभिव्यक्ति दिइरहेका छन् । बरु त्यसले समग्र अर्थतन्त्रमा पार्ने प्रभावका बारेमा बृहत् अध्ययन गरेर जिम्मेवार निकायहरूबाट आधिकारिक भनाइ सार्वजनिक हुनु उपयुक्त हुन्छ, जसले दसैंका बेला मूल्यवृद्धिको चाप रोक्ने सरकारी प्रयास भएको अनुभूति दिलाउन सकोस् ।

प्रा.डा. विकासराज सत्याल
हरेक वर्ष दसैं आउँछ तर यसपल्टको दसैं सर्वसाधारणका लागि दुर्दशा साबित हुने भएको छ, दसैं देशको यस्तो ठूलो चाड हो जब वर्षभरिमा सबैभन्दा धेरै किनबेच, व्यापार गरिन्छ । खाद्यान्न र नयाँ कपडाको मुख्य कारोबार हुने यो पर्वमा यिनै वस्तुहरूमा भएको अत्यधिक मूल्यवृद्धिबाट यो वर्ष सर्वसाधारणले दुर्दशा भोग्नुपर्ने भएको छ । यसरी वर्षभरिको प्रमुख व्यापार हुने दसैंबजार यदि बिग्रिन्छ भने यसको नकारात्मक प्रभाव देशको सम्पूर्ण अर्थतन्त्रमा नै पर्ने छ ।     

दसैंको मुख्य आकर्षण रहेको मासु नै यसपालि महँगीको मुख्य चपेटामा परेको छ । कुखुराको मुख्य बजार रहेको काठमाडौँ उपत्यकामा उपभोक्ताले निषेध गरेपछि काभ्रे, मकवानपुर, चितवनजस्ता ठूलापोल्ट्री फार्म भएका जिल्लाका व्यवसायी धराशायी हुँदैछन् । देशभरिका १९–२० जिल्लामा चरोज्वरो (बर्डफ्लु) देखिएको छ । समग्रमा ६४ अर्बको कारोबार रहेको यस व्यवसायमा किसानका करिब २५ अर्बको लगानी यस संव्रmमणपछि जोखिममा परेको खबर छापामा आएको छ । चल्ला र अन्डासमेत निषेधित भएपछि दसैंसम्ममा पनि हुर्केका कुखुरा राम्ररी पाइने सम्भावना छैन । संव्रmमित क्षेत्रमा तीन महिनासम्म चल्ला पाल्न नदिने भनिएको छ, यो संव्रmमणले देशको सबैभन्दा ठूलो व्यावसायिक सञ्जाललाई धराशायी पारेको छ । कुल मासु खपतको ४० प्रतिशत भार बोकेको कुखुराको मासुको अभावमा खसीबोकाको मूल्य लगातार बढ्दै गएको छ । दुई महिनापहिले, चरोज्वरोको संव्रmमणअघिसम्म प्रतिकेजी ६ सय ५० रुपैयाँ भएको खसीको मासुलाई हाल ८ सय पर्दैछ ।  यो दर दसैंको अत्यधिक माग र महँगाइको चापले ९ सयदेखि १ हजारसम्म पुग्ने सम्भावना देखिन्छ, हुनत मागको ९० प्रतिशत खसी–बोका भारतबाट नै आउँछ, तर भारतमै यस वर्षको बाढी र अतिवृष्टिले गर्दा काँचो मासुको उत्पादनमा ठूलो ह्रास आएको छ, जसले यो आयातीत मासुको भाउ नेपाली बजारमा करिब रु. २ सय ८० प्रति केजीबाट ३ सय ९० सम्म पुगेको माछा–मासु व्यवसायी संघका अध्यक्षले बताएको खबर सञ्चारमाध्यममा आएको छ ।
मापसे जाँचले आव्रmान्त पारेको रेस्टुराँ र पार्टी प्यालेसको रौनक तीज र दसैं नजिकिँदै जाँदा चरोज्वरोले अझै झरेको झ¥यै पारेको छ, यसैबीच सुन चाँदीको अकासिएको भाउले मध्यमवर्गीय उपभोक्ताको विवाह, व्रतबन्ध, अक्षय तृतीया, तीज, दसैंजस्ता व्यवहार संकटमा परिरहेको छ । सुनचाँदीको भाउसँगै पेट्रोलको बढ्दो भाउले पनि बजारभाउ अकासिएको छ । दसैं राष्ट्रिय चाड भनिन्छ, किनकि यसमा सबैभन्दा बढी पैसा बजारमा चलायमान हुन्छ । तर, यसको सँघारमा पुग्दा ह्वात्त बढेको महँगीले निम्न र मध्यमवर्गीय उपभोक्ताको किन्ने क्षमतामा ठूलै ह्रासः आउने प्रस्ट देखिँदै छ ।
दसैं नजिकिँदै जाँदा अर्को संकट बजारमा छरिएको छ, गएको दुई महिनामा डलरको विनिमयदरमा भएको तीव्र बढोत्तरीले बजार चर्मराएको छ । गएको २०६९ को दसैंताका ८९ रुपैयाँमा रहेको डलरको विनिमय १ सय ९ रुपैयाँसम्म पुग्यो । यो अझै १ सयकै हाराहारीमा छ । डलरको भाउमा भएको यो बढोत्तरीले बजारका सम्पूर्ण वस्तुको मूल्य बढ्ने निश्चित छ । यसै त ‘के निहुँ पाऊँ कनिका बुकाऊँ’ भन्ने व्यापारीहरू, जसले बजेटमा कर्मचारीको तलब बढेको भोलिपल्टैदेखि बजारभाउ बढाइबसेका थिए, त्यसमाथि यो डलरको भाउ बढ्दा आफ्ना सामानको भाउ बढाउन बाध्य नै भएका छन् ।
डलरको भाउ लगातार अप्रत्याशित तवरले बढिरहँदा अर्थशास्त्रीहरूका भुत्ते तर्क–वितर्क छापामा आएका छन् । हालको डलरसँग यो नेपाली रुपैयाँको अवमूल्यन नेपालको अर्थतन्त्रको कमजोरीले भएको होइन, अमेरिकाको अर्थतन्त्रमा हल्का मात्र सुधार आएको छ जसले अन्य देशमा डलरको स्थितिमा न्यूनमात्र सुधार आएको छ । अहिले भारत नै डलरको मूल्यवृद्धिबाट सबैभन्दा बढी आव्रmान्त भएको देश हो, जो उसैको अर्थतन्त्र र राजनीतिका कमजोरीहरूले गर्दा भएको भनिन्छ । भारतको यो वित्तीय स्थितिमा निकट भविष्यमा नै चमत्कारिक सुधार आउने संकेत देखिएको छैन । फलतः डलरसँगको अवमूल्यन अझै बढ्ने भारतीय अर्थशास्त्रीहरू भन्दै छन् । भारतीय रुपैयाँसँग नेपाली रुपैयाँको लगनगाँठो बाँधिएको हुनाले नै भारतीय मुद्रासँगै नेपाली मुद्रा बाध्यात्मक तवरले सती गएको हो । नेपालका राजनीतिज्ञहरूले पछिल्ला दिनमा देशको साँचो भारतमा छ भनिरहेका बेला जनतालाई यो पनि बोध भएको छ कि अर्थतन्त्र त झन् पूर्ण रूपले भारतमै आश्रित रहेछ । व्यापारको अधिकर हिस्सा भारतमै निर्भर हुनु नेपाली अर्थतन्त्रका लागि कुनै पनि मानेमा हितकर होइन । केही अर्थशास्त्रीहरूले भारतसँगको यो मुद्राको लगनगाँठो छुट्ट्याउनुपर्ने तर्क दिइरहँदा केही पूर्वगभर्नर, पूर्वयोजना आयोग उपाध्यक्ष र केही अर्थशास्त्रीहरू ‘डलर महँगो हुँदैमा आत्तिनुपर्दैन, ...आकाशै खस्यो ठान्नु हुँदैन’ जस्ता हास्यास्पद अभिव्यक्ति दिइरहेका छन् । बरु त्यसले समग्र अर्थतन्त्रमा पार्ने प्रभावका बारेमा बृहत् अध्ययन गरेर जिम्मेवार निकायहरूबाट तथ्यपरक रूपमा यस्ता विचार सार्वजनिक हुनु उपयुक्त हुन्छ । तर, त्यसैका आधारमा  बजारभाउ अकासिए सर्वसाधारणको दसैं बिग्रिन्छ कि बिग्रिन्न भनेर एकपल्ट ध्यान दिनुपर्ने होइन ?
त्यसो त गएको २० वर्ष अर्थात् सन् १९९३ देखि नेपाली मुद्राको विनिमयदर भारतीय मुद्रासँग स्थिर गरिएको हो । सन् १९६६–६७ मा भारु र नेरु झन्डै बराबर रहे पनि भारु लगातार बढ्दै सन् १९८६ मा  भारु १ बराबर १.७० नेरुसम्म पुगेको थियो, जो सन् १९९३ पछि १.६ मा अविचलित हुने गरी स्थिर पारिएको छ । डलरको यो बढोत्तरी र यसले गर्दा सामान भएको मूल्यवृद्धिले भारतमा प्रधानमन्त्रीले अधिवेशनै बोलाएर संसद्मा जवाफ दिनुपरेको छ, जबकि नेपालमा राष्ट्र बैंकको यिनै ओठे जवाफमा सबै चुप लग्नुपरेको छ ।
हाम्रो बजारमा पाइने उपभोग्य वस्तुहरूमध्ये ९५ प्रतिशत वस्तु विदेशबाटै आयातीत हुन्छ, यसमध्ये भारतबाहेक अन्य सबै मुलुकबाट सामान ल्याउँदा डलरमा नै कारोबार गर्नुपर्छ । भारततर्फ पनि नेपालबाट निर्यात ज्यादै कम हुने भएकाले यो भारतीय मुद्रा र व्यापार पनि अप्रत्यक्ष रूपमा डलरमा नै निर्भर छ, जसको एउटा उदाहरण भारतबाट आउने इन्धन–तेल हो, जसको भुक्तानी डलरमा गरिन्छ । यसरी डलर महँगो हुदा नेपाली बजारको सम्पूर्ण वस्तु स्वाभाविक रूपले महँगिन्छ  ।
आर्थिक प्रतिवेदन २०६९÷७० अनुसार नेपालीको औसत प्रतिव्यक्ति वार्षिक आय रु. २६,०७९ छ अर्थात् मासिक आय रु २,१७३ । यही २,१७३ रुपैयाँ नै प्रतिव्यक्ति दसैं खर्च पनि हो, हुनत नेपालमा करिब २२ प्रतिशत जनता, दिनको १ डलरभन्दा कम आय भएका छन् र २०६८ को जीवनस्तर सर्वेक्षणअनुसार औसतभन्दा बढी आय हुनेको जनसंख्या १५ प्रतिशतभन्दा पनि कम छ । त्यसको अर्थ हो, जनसंख्याको ज्यादै सानो हिस्साले मात्र यो रु. २,१७३ भन्दा बढीको दसैं खर्च गर्ने क्षमता राख्छ, खर्चको हिसाबले हेर्दा यो औसत दसैं खर्चले मासुलगायत खानेकुरा, नयाँ लुगाफाटो र यातायातको खर्चलाई नपुग्ने या ज्यादै मुस्किलले धान्न पुग्ने देखिन्छ । दसैंसम्म पुग्दा बजारको महँगी राष्ट्र बैंकको १० प्रतिशतको मुद्रास्फीतिको पछिल्लो तथ्यांकभन्दा डेढ गुणाबढी हुने निश्चित देखिन्छ । यसै पनि यस वर्ष माछा–मासुमा १७ प्रतिशत र लत्ता कपडामा १२ प्रतिशतले भाउ बढेको तथ्यांकले देखाउँछ, यसको अर्थ अघिल्लो दसैंमा १ हजारमा किनेको जुत्तालाई यसपल्ट कम्तीमा १५ सय पर्नेछ । मोटामोटी हिसाब गर्दा एक व्यक्तिलाई यसपल्टको दसैंको खाद्यान्न, लुगा र यातायात आदिको खर्चका लागि रु. ५ हजारदेखि ६ हजार ५ सय रुपैयाँजति चाहिने देखिन्छ, जो माथिको प्रतिव्यक्ति आयको अनुमानभन्दा डेढ गुणा बढी हो । यस खर्चमा अन्य मनोरञ्जनका खर्च तथा डेराभाडाजस्ता नियमित खर्च जोडिएका छैनन् । तसर्थ यो दसैंलाई छुट्ट्याएको खर्च ‘महँगीरूपी सुरसाले बाएको ठूलो मुखमा पस्न लागेको फुच्चे हनुमान’ जस्तो देखिँदै छ । यसपल्टको दसैंमा सर्वसाधारणलाई राहत दिन सरकारले विशेष व्यवस्था गर्नुपर्ने देखिन्छ ।
(सत्याल त्रिभुवन विश्वविद्यालय तथ्यांकशास्त्रका प्राध्यापक हुन्)

Impossible goals to acheive in MDGs

Nepal government has pledged to the Millennium Development Goals (MDG), eight broad goals to be achieved by 2015. Among these, two sectors, basic health and primary education, are considered key to human development. Nepal’s performance in these seems far short of the mark, which will have prolonged negative impact on the country. However, these are also two areas in which the government is claiming great success. Even if we rely on the government statistics such as the Economic Survey 2013, the gap between what we have achieved and what we planned to is wide. Moreover, some recent incidents indicate that these government statistics could be misleading. With little more than two years remaining, the achievement of MDG seems impossible, though it is heavily funded by donor agencies (mainly UNDP) and given high priority by the government.

One of the crucial health indicators of MDG is the maternal mortality rate. The target was to reduce it to 134 deaths per 100,000 live births by the end of 2015. The Economic Survey 2013 states that there have been 250 deaths per 100,000 live births in the current fiscal year. Only 29 percent of the deliveries are made by skilled midwifes. Recently we heard of Lachima Budha of Mugu who died after she had to carry a dead fetus inside her for several days in the absence of a hospital or doctor. Then there was Kristina Gurung of Gorkha who had to spend Rs 60,000 to stay for a month at a hotel in the district headquarters because there was no birthing center in her locality. Sources at Gorkha hospital reported that each month, about 100 pregnant women avail of their facilities, among whom 30 stay in hotels. These case stories depict the gloomy reality behind government statistics. About 85 percent Nepalis live in rural areas where skilled midwifes, doctors or medicine are seldom available. One recent report by the Ministry of Health was an eye-opener. Deepak Dahal in Nagarik (Aug 19, 2013) reports a serious malpractice at Sushma Koirala Memorial Trust. The Trust has initiated a campaign against uterus prolapse in Surkhet. During inspection by MoH, it was found that this campaign has violated basic WHO norms for safe handling. For example, two doctors made 30 operations in a day, when WHO restricts more than six operation a day. More seriously, they amputated the uterus of many women when they could have given medicines or alternative treatment. In the MoH report, several cases reported as uterus operation were merely medical checkups. Such records have produced overestimated figures in government statistics. The Sushma Trust, which has no hospital of its own, has conducted such campaigns in more than a dozen locations including Kathmandu, Mahottari, Dailekh, Kalikot, Surkhet and Rukum. Agencies that conduct such operations are given government subsidy of Rs 1,200 per operation in Tarai, Rs. 1300 per operation in hills and Rs. 1,500 per operation in mountains. However, Sushama Trust is not the first to misuse such subsidies. In its inspection report, MoH identified several such cases. Modern family planning methods are considered important for reducing population growth, abortion, infant mortality, and maternal mortality. MDG had set a target of raising the number of users of such methods to 67 percent by 2015. As per the Economic Survey, in 2012-13 only 48 percent women of fertile age were using these techniques. In contrast, 27 percent of the women of reproductive age lack access to family planning tools, resulting in 200,000 unwanted pregnancies. Technically, we can call it ‘unmet demand’, that is, these women desire some family planning tools, but do not have access to it. A news in Nagarik (August 28, 2013) mentions Srijana BiKa of Gorkha, who says her fourth pregnancy is an unwanted one, as family planning tools are unavailable at the rural primary health centers. This despite the fact the government spends about Rs 300 to 350 million each year on Family Planning programs. The second most acclaimed area of government reform is education. Despite the fact that government budget for education sector has more than doubled in the last five years—going from Rs 27 billion to Rs 63.91 billion—SLC results, a major indicator of education, have been consistently discouraging. Meanwhile, performance gap between private and public schools is widening. The SLC result of 2012 shows that only one in four students of public schools have passed SLC, whereas nine in ten students from private schools passed. School Sector Reform Program, which was intended to improve the quality of education in government schools, has apparently failed. This five-year long donor supported project, implemented in some pilot districts, is ending in December 2013. However, the performance of public schools was miserable in all these districts, a waste of Rs 257 billion funds poured into the program. There have been news about officially registered schools that got government funds, but had no physical existence. Such virtual schools were reported to be in hundreds, especially in Tarai districts of Mahottari, Rautahat, Parsa and Dhanusha. This indicates a nearly absent inspection and monitoring by the government. Such virtual schools naturally bloat the statistics of students and teachers as well as number of literates. One of the MDG goals was 100 percent Net Enrollment Rate in primary education and no Drop-outs up to class five. Reportedly, we achieved 95 and 84 percent of these goals respectively. But in fact, several government schools are going to be closed or merged due too many students dropping out. Department of Education has just announced merging of 30 schools in Nuwakot and 10 schools in Kathmandu. Public schools have been suffering from incompetent and politically-motivated teachers. The absence of local elected bodies and the void at the center; political turmoil, donor-driven mentality and bureaucratic negligence are impeding our development. The two sectors discussed here, health and education, are just examples. Other sectors where the government has not claimed high achievement are in similar or worse conditions, with any optimistic data a big suspect.

प्रमका मुख्य सचिबको - "झुटको खेती"

Woes of over politicization of Education

	University Education in Nepal -      By VIKAS RAJ SATYAL {Besides deteriorating the system and ruining the quality, politicizing education has undetermined the staffs’ dignity} {student unions seldom address educational issues, rather they ask why the price of petrol increased by five rupees} “Education is the best wealth one can have” says Nitishastra. It increases as you spend, thieves cannot steal it, and when ancestral wealth is divided, you need not divide education. In this country, this amazing power is struggling for life in the hands of a few short-sighted politicians and policymakers. Politicization of education has ruined the country.  Tribhuvan University has the responsibility of providing higher education in the country. About 374,000 individuals, or 85 percent of the students of higher education, are in 960 campuses (constituent and affiliated) of TU. That makes TU the largest university system of the country. The other major universities, Kathmandu, Pokhara and Purbanchal, respectively bear two, three and six percent of the student load. Not only in its student size or number of campuses but also in its reach, TU is an amazing university. Its campuses are spread from Mechi to Mahakali, from urban to rural areas, and from Tarai to mountains. It is a truly cosmopolitan system, in contrast to other universities whose colleges are concentrated in Kathmandu, and even if not, are almost entirely urban.  Despite its enormity, TU is on the verge of collapse, similar to the gradual sinking of the British ship Titanic. There is much similarity between the two. Titanic was the most elegant ship in marine history with its gigantic size and sophisticated machineries. It was pompously called invincible until it sank in 1912 after colliding with an iceberg, killing more than 1,500 people. If TU collapses, no other university can survive in Nepal, as other universities suffer from similar predicaments.  Excessive politicization is rapidly eroding the academic strength of universities. They have become fertile ground for political parties who use students, teachers and administrative staff to serve their vested interests. Young students between the age of 18 and 25, who are not mature enough to make pertinent national decisions on political, social or economic issues, are persuaded by politicians to become convenient political tools and riot on the streets. Student unions seldom speak of educational or college issues during uprisings, rather they ask why some minister or the other is corrupt, and why there was an increase in petrol price. Politicians have gone a one step ahead, wrecking universities through illegal appointments. Illegal in the sense that there are university service commissions for this purpose, but political appointments bypass these formal means. In TU, a large number of teachers and staff were forcibly recruited a few years ago by the education minister, who claimed that the government would take the financial responsibility for them. A couple months afterwards, the minister was dismissed due to political changes, and the government refused to acknowledge this responsibility. These recruits have now become a burden to the university. Independent academicians seem to have vanished, and all that are left are the political ones. Academics from the Nepali Congress, CPN-UML, Maoist or Madeshbadi promote their parties’ ideas, however unproductive, and denounce their opposition party’s ideas, however beneficial. VCs, deans and other high level officials often point out over politicization of education as the worst problem of the university, and appeal students and academics to forget their political leanings. However, they forget that they were also appointed politically. One of the reasons TU has become weaker than, say Kathmandu University, is its complete dependence on the government for budget. About 95 percent of its budget comes from the government, and it charges minimum fees to its students. The average annual fee at the bachelor level in TU is about Rs. 3,000 which is less than the monthly fee in most private collages. When VCs and Campus Chiefs are appointed according to political affinity rather than based on their capabilities, how can these appointees think independently, and even take an interest in improving the education system? They do not have the competence to do so in the first place. Besides deteriorating the education system and quality of education, such traditions have also undermined the dignity of the rest of the workers. Students passing out from these systems hardly have the skills to sell themselves in the market. They seldom have in-depth knowledge or familiarity with modern concepts in their field of study. The current curriculum and books were prescribed and developed decades ago. With the flood of private collages, most teachers are engrossed in different colleges, so course developers hesitate to introduce new concepts in the curriculum which will force such teachers to conduct extra study. Teaching in universities was once the most prestigious job, but it is now considered among the most undignified ones in our society. Once at a family party, a relative I had met after years asked me about my job. When I said that I am a teacher at TU, a silence fell, and the people nearby were so unimpressed that they abruptly changed the topic. I consider it an example of the market value of a teacher in TU. Many educationists and experts who love TU have given strong impetus to the government to liberate universities from political syndicate but in vain. It is the duty of teachers, students and freethinkers of the country to rescue the university and the higher education system of Nepal. The teachers should focus on academic development and research, and students should focus on local issues and academic problems. The future of more than four million students currently in higher education depends on it. In the words of Nelson Mandela, “Education is the most powerful weapon which you can use to change the world.” Let us use our education to lead our country from darkness to enlightenment.

Woes of Over Politicization of Education

Powerful weapon

By VIKAS RAJ SATYAL

University Education in Nepal
“Education is the best wealth one can have” says Nitishastra. It increases as you spend, thieves cannot steal it, and when ancestral wealth is divided, you need not divide education. In this country, this amazing power is struggling for life in the hands of a few short-sighted politicians and policymakers. Politicization of education has ruined the country.

Tribhuvan University has the responsibility of providing higher education in the country. About 374,000 individuals, or 85 percent of the students of higher education, are in 960 campuses (constituent and affiliated) of TU. That makes TU the largest university system of the country. The other major universities, Kathmandu, Pokhara and Purbanchal, respectively bear two, three and six percent of the student load. Not only in its student size or number of campuses but also in its reach, TU is an amazing university. Its campuses are spread from Mechi to Mahakali, from urban to rural areas, and from Tarai to mountains. It is a truly cosmopolitan system, in contrast to other universities whose colleges are concentrated in Kathmandu, and even if not, are almost entirely urban.



Despite its enormity, TU is on the verge of collapse, similar to the gradual sinking of the British ship Titanic. There is much similarity between the two. Titanic was the most elegant ship in marine history with its gigantic size and sophisticated machineries. It was pompously called invincible until it sank in 1912 after colliding with an iceberg, killing more than 1,500 people. If TU collapses, no other university can survive in Nepal, as other universities suffer from similar predicaments.

Excessive politicization is rapidly eroding the academic strength of universities. They have become fertile ground for political parties who use students, teachers and administrative staff to serve their vested interests. Young students between the age of 18 and 25, who are not mature enough to make pertinent national decisions on political, social or economic issues, are persuaded by politicians to become convenient political tools and riot on the streets.

Student unions seldom speak of educational or college issues during uprisings, rather they ask why some minister or the other is corrupt, and why there was an increase in petrol price. Politicians have gone a one step ahead, wrecking universities through illegal appointments. Illegal in the sense that there are university service commissions for this purpose, but political appointments bypass these formal means.

In TU, a large number of teachers and staff were forcibly recruited a few years ago by the education minister, who claimed that the government would take the financial responsibility for them. A couple months afterwards, the minister was dismissed due to political changes, and the government refused to acknowledge this responsibility. These recruits have now become a burden to the university.

Independent academicians seem to have vanished, and all that are left are the political ones. Academics from the Nepali Congress, CPN-UML, Maoist or Madeshbadi promote their parties’ ideas, however unproductive, and denounce their opposition party’s ideas, however beneficial. VCs, deans and other high level officials often point out over politicization of education as the worst problem of the university, and appeal students and academics to forget their political leanings. However, they forget that they were also appointed politically.

One of the reasons TU has become weaker than, say Kathmandu University, is its complete dependence on the government for budget. About 95 percent of its budget comes from the government, and it charges minimum fees to its students. The average annual fee at the bachelor level in TU is about Rs. 3,000 which is less than the monthly fee in most private collages. When VCs and Campus Chiefs are appointed according to political affinity rather than based on their capabilities, how can these appointees think independently, and even take an interest in improving the education system? They do not have the competence to do so in the first place. Besides deteriorating the education system and quality of education, such traditions have also undermined the dignity of the rest of the workers.

Students passing out from these systems hardly have the skills to sell themselves in the market. They seldom have in-depth knowledge or familiarity with modern concepts in their field of study. The current curriculum and books were prescribed and developed decades ago. With the flood of private collages, most teachers are engrossed in different colleges, so course developers hesitate to introduce new concepts in the curriculum which will force such teachers to conduct extra study. Teaching in universities was once the most prestigious job, but it is now considered among the most undignified ones in our society. Once at a family party, a relative I had met after years asked me about my job. When I said that I am a teacher at TU, a silence fell, and the people nearby were so unimpressed that they abruptly changed the topic. I consider it an example of the market value of a teacher in TU.

Many educationists and experts who love TU have given strong impetus to the government to liberate universities from political syndicate but in vain. It is the duty of teachers, students and freethinkers of the country to rescue the university and the higher education system of Nepal. The teachers should focus on academic development and research, and students should focus on local issues and academic problems. The future of more than four million students currently in higher education depends on it. In the words of Nelson Mandela, “Education is the most powerful weapon which you can use to change the world.” Let us use our education to lead our country from darkness to enlightenment.

अर्थतन्त्रमा भष्मासुर प्रवृत्ति - (कारोबार, श्रावन २३, २०७० )

[आर्थिक विकासका लागि भ्रष्टाचार, ढिलासुस्ती र लालफित्ताशाहीमा कमी, व्यापारमा सहजता, दक्ष÷अदक्ष श्रमशक्तिको उपलब्धता र हड्तालजस्ता अवरोधहरू न्यून हुनैपर्छ । यसैगरी सडक, बिजुलीजस्ता पूर्वाधार र लगानीमैत्री वातावरण पनि आवश्यक हुन्छ ।]

भष्मासुरले आफैंलाइ भष्म गराएको पौराणिक आख्यान छ । कतै हामीले पनि भष्मासुर प्रवृत्ति त अपनाएको छैनौं ? देशमा प्रशस्त भष्मासुर छन् र तिनलाई सबैले चिनेका छन् तर गर्न कसैले केही नसक्ने भइसकेका छन्, किनकि यहाँका भष्मासुरलाई अभयदान प्राप्त छ— कार्यपालिका, न्यायपालिका र व्यवस्थापिका कसैले छुन नसक्ने । फलस्वरूप देशमा डनहरूलाई पुलिसले भेट्दैनन् तर डनका कुकृत्यले रन्थनाएकाले डनलाई पिट्दा ऊ समातिन्छ । केही दिनअघि ‘चरी’ भनिने डनलाई गोली हानेको अभियोगमा एक आक्रमणकारी पक्राउ प¥यो । तर त्यो प्रहरीको मोस्ट–वान्टेड सूचीको चरी भने त्यतिखेर समातिएन । हालमात्र समातियो, छुटाउने प्रयास जारी छ । यस्ता धेरै चरी देशमा उन्मुक्त उडिरहेका छन् । उपभोक्ताहरू मिसावट, कमतौल र प्रदूषित खानेकुरा र सामान किन्न, खान बाध्य छन् । आयकर सबैले तिर्नुपर्छ तर ठूला भष्मासुरहरू, जो फर्जी बिलबाट करोडौं हात यसरी साफ गर्छन् कि दाग सबै गायब । २०६८ सालमा ६.६ अर्बको ‘नक्कली भ्याट बिल छली’ प्रकरणमा सरकारले ५ सय ६८ वटा व्यापारिक फर्मका नाम सार्वजनिक ग¥यो । तर, अभयदान प्राप्त यिनीहरूका हात अहिलेसम्म बेदाग नै छन् । नापतौल विभागले कुश्माबजारका ३ सय ५० वटा पसलको अनुगमन गर्दा प्रायः सबैका ढकमा तौल पुगेन । १ हजार ग्रामको ढकमा १ सय ग्रामसम्म कम तौल भेटियो । पर्वत उद्योग वाणिज्य संघका अध्यक्षले भनेछन्, यो सामान्य नै कुरा हो, व्यापारीको गल्ती छैन, दुई वर्षसम्म ढक चलाउँदा घिसिन्छ र तौल घट्छ । आर्थिक विकास कुवाको भ्यागुता होइन, नेताहरूले राग अलाप्दैमा छलाङ लाउन सकोस् । यो देशमा ठूल्ठूला विश्वविद्यालयका डिग्रीधारी अर्थमन्त्रीहरू भए, राष्ट्र बैंक र योजना आयोगका प्रमुख भए । आर्थिक विकासलाई छलाङ लगाउने क्रान्तिकारी सपना बाँडेका बोर्डफस्ट मन्त्री भए, तर घिस्रिँदै बढेको अर्थतन्त्र हालका वर्षहरूमा झन मरणासन्न भएको छ । नेपालको वृद्धिदर लगातार घट्दै गएको छ र यो वृद्धिदर निकटका छिमेकी राष्ट्रहरूको भन्दा सधैं कम छ । आर्थिक वृद्धिदर त नेपालको न्यूनतम छ नै, यसका साथै कुल गार्हस्थ्य उत्पादनको परिमाण पनि हेरिनुपर्छ । सन् २०११ मा नेपालको कुल गार्हस्थ्य उत्पादन अमेरिकी डलरमा १९ अर्ब थियो जबकि भारतको १८ खर्ब ४८ अर्ब र चीनको ७३ खर्ब १८ अर्ब । यो हेर्दा नेपालको क्षमता छिमेकीहरूको अगाडि नवजात शिशुजस्तै देखिन्छ । आर्थिक विकासका लागि उचित योजना दिन सक्नुपर्छ । योजना कार्यान्वयन हुने दृढता र वातावरण दिन सक्नुपर्छ । उदाहरणका लागि भारतको विहारलाई लिन सकिन्छ । आर्थिक र मानव विकासको सूचकांकअनुसार सन् २००६ सम्म विहार भारतको सर्वाधिक अविकसित प्रान्त थियो । त्यसताका बिहारको आर्थिक वृद्धिदर केवल ०.९ प्रतिशत थियो, जबकि भारतको औसत ७.८ प्रतिशत थियो । सन् २०१० पछि र हालसम्म बिहारको वृद्धिदर १३ प्रतिशत छ र यो गुजरातपछिको दोस्रो उच्च वृद्धिदर भएको प्रान्त हो । विश्वबैंकको प्रतिवेदनअनुसार बिहारको यो विकासमा सुशासनको मुख्य भूमिका छ, जसअन्तर्गत, कम भ्रष्टचार, बढी पारदर्शिता खुला व्यापारका प्रावधानहरू पर्छन् ।
२००९–२०१० ताका जब अमेरिका राजगारी ह्रासको समस्याले आक्रान्त थियो, राष्ट्रपति ओबामाले एउटा पार्टीमा एप्पल कम्प्युटरका प्रमुख स्टिभ जब्सलाई सोधेछन्– “किन तपाईं आईफोनका पार्टपुर्जा अमेरिकामा नबनाएर चीनबाट आयात गर्नुहुन्छ ?” जब्सले जवाफ दिए, “चीनमा ठूलो संख्यामा अर्ध–दक्ष प्राविधिकहरू, सस्ता श्रमिक र विशाल कारखाना छन्, फलस्वरूप यस्ता सामान यतिवटा भन्नेबित्तिकै त्यहाँ एउटा हलचल सुरु हुन्छ र ठीक समयमा काम सकिन्छ । फेरि चीनमा कुनै नयाँ व्यवसाय खोल्न जम्मा तीन दिन भए पुग्छ, जसका लागि अमेरिकामा करिब एक महिना कुर्नुपर्छ ।” यो संवाद र नेपालको एउटा उदाहरणले किन हाम्रो आर्थिक विकास यति सुस्त छ भन्ने कुरा छर्लङ्ग हुन्छ । हालै राष्ट्रिय महŒवको भनिएको नेपाल वायुसेवा निगमको दुईवटा जहाज किन्ने निर्णय सरकारले ग¥यो । किन्नका लागि पैसा छ, सरकारको ग्यारेन्टी पनि छ तर डलर सटहीका लागि अर्थ, राष्ट्रबैंक र नागरिक उड्डयनको चेपुवामा परेर निगम दुई हप्तासम्म हायल कायलमा प¥यो । दोस्रो हप्ताको अन्तिम दिन अर्थात् असार २६ सम्ममा पैसा नपठाए पूर्वनिर्धारित २०७१ फागुनसम्ममा दिने भनिएको जहाज कति महिनापछि पाइन्छ भन्ने कुरा अनिश्चित छ÷थियो । अन्त्यमा डलर साटियो । कतै यसमा पनि भष्मासुर माफियाहरू त छिरेनन् । लामो समयदेखि जहाजको अभावले लड्खडाइरहेको निगमले यी जहाज पाएमा देशको अर्थतन्त्रलाई नै ठूलो भरथेग हुने थियो । तर, आफ्नै सरकारले गरेको निर्णयमा समेत आफ्नै मन्त्रालयको लालफित्ताशाहीबाट आक्रान्त निगमको यो खबरले नयाँ लगानीका लागि इच्छुक निजी क्षेत्रले के आशा गर्न सक्छ ? उसै पनि विश्व बैंकको व्यापारमा सहजताको सूचक (इडीबी) अनुसार भारत, बंगलादेश, भुटान, श्रीलंका र चीनभन्दा नेपालको सहजता सूचक ज्यादै खराब छ ।
आर्थिक विकासका लागि भ्रष्टाचार, ढिलासुस्ती र लालफित्ताशाहीमा कमी, व्यापारमा सहजता, दक्ष÷अदक्ष श्रमशक्तिको उपलब्धता र हड्तालजस्ता अवरोधहरू न्यून हुनैपर्छ । यसैगरी सडक, बिजुलीजस्ता पूर्वाधार र लगानीमैत्री वातावरण पनि आवश्यक हुन्छ । ट्रान्सपरेन्सी इन्टरनेसनलको भ्रष्टाचार सूचकांकमा नेपालको भ्रष्टाचार बढ्दै गएको देखिएको छ । हड्ताल र बन्द नेपालका ट्रेड युनियनहरूका सस्ता औजार भएका छन् । यसबाट उद्योगपतिकै पैसामा राजनीतिक अभीष्टसमेत पूरा गरिन्छ । हाम्रा श्रमिक प्रायः अदक्ष छन् । सो अदक्ष श्रमशक्ति पनि अपर्याप्त छ र सहज उपलब्ध हुँदैन, विदेश पलायन भएर । तथ्यांक विभागका अनुसार करिब २० लाख युवा विदेश पलायन भएका छन् । यसका साथै उद्योग–व्यापारले बिजुलीमा चर्को कटौती र यातायातको बेथिति पनि सहनुपरेको छ । राजनीतिक अस्थिरता कायमै छ । यस्ता निराशाजनक परिस्थितिमा आर्थिक विकास हुनु असम्भव प्रायः नै हो ।
गत दशकमा नेपालको जनसंख्या १.३५ प्रतिशतले बढेको छ र गत आर्थिक वर्षमा गार्हस्थ्य उत्पादन ३.५ प्रतिशतले बढेको छ । यो वृद्धिसँगै यस आर्थिक वर्षमा नेपालको व्यापारघाटा गत वर्षभन्दा १सय २० प्रतिशतले बढेर झन्डै ४ खर्ब पुगेको तत्थांक नेपाल राष्ट्र बैंकले हालै सार्वजनिक गरेको छ । हरेक वर्ष बढ्दै गएको व्यापारघाटाबाट अर्थशास्त्रीहरू पनि भयभीत छन् । व्यापारघाटा बढ्नु भनेको निर्यातभन्दा आयात बढ्नु या आफ्नो उत्पादन क्षमता घट्नु हो । यो निकर्मण्यता र विलासिता पनि हो । यस व्यापारघाटाको मुख्य–मुख्य हिस्सा उपभोग्य वस्तु देखिएको छ, तर यसका साथै विलासी वस्तुहरू जस्तो सुन, मदिरा र कस्मेटिकको आयात पनि ४४ प्रतिशतसम्म बढेको देखिएको छ । देशको अर्थतन्त्रको मेरुदण्ड मानिएको कृषिमा लगातार ह्रास हुँदै गएको छ । २०३०–४० का दशकमा गार्हस्थ्य उत्पादनको ७० प्रतिशतसम्म धानेको कृषिले हाल ३५ प्रतिशतमात्र धानेको छ । कुनै बेला नेपालबाट निर्यात गरिने चामल अचेल आयात गर्नुपरेको छ । यस वर्षको तथ्यांकले चामलको आयात गत वर्षभन्दा २ सय ४४ प्रतिशतले बढेर करिब रु. साढे ४ अर्ब भएको देखाएको छ । यसैगरी करिब रु. साढे २ अर्बको त तरकारी भारतबाट मात्र आयात देखिएको छ । यिनै परिस्थितिलाई हेरेर अन्तर्राष्ट्रिय मुद्राकोषले अर्थतन्त्रमा अबको ५ वर्षसम्म सुधार नआउने आँकलन गरेको छ ।
देशलाई अहिले चुनावको रन्कोले छोएको छ । संविधान बन्छ कि भन्ने आशा छ । संविधानमा प्रान्तहरूको सोचाइ राखिएको छ, तर आर्थिक सबलता या आत्मनिर्भरता नभई प्रान्तहरू टिक्न सक्दैनन् । जाति, भाषा, पहिचानअनुसार प्रान्तहरू बनाउने बहस चलेको छ । तर, यसको आर्थिक पक्षबारे सायदै चर्चा चलेको छ । चुनाव लड्ने केही ठूला दलहरूः माओवादी, नेपाली कांग्रेस, एमाले या मधेसवादी जुनसुकैको घोषणापत्र पढेमा आर्थिक पक्ष उपेक्षित देखिन्छ । सबैका घोषणा–पत्रमा अमूर्त भाषामा आर्थिक विकास गर्ने, जीवनस्तर बढाउने कुरा उल्लेख छन् । तर त्यसो गर्ने बाटोको कुनै रेखांकन छैन । मूर्त भाषामा यसका लागि कुन–कुन कार्य गर्ने लेखिएको भेटिँदैन । यसबाट पनि आर्थिक विकास राजनीतिक दलहरूको प्राथमिकतामा नपरेको प्रस्ट हुन्छ । भिन्न दलका राजनीतिक सोच भिन्दै भए पनि आर्थिक समृद्धिको गन्तव्य एउटै हुनुपर्छ । अर्थ, देश विकासको चुरो हो, तर राजनीतिक र सामाजिक क्षेत्रबाट यसको सदैव उपेक्षा भइरहेको छ । २०१३ को ट्रान्सपरेन्सी इन्टरनेशनलको प्रतिवेदनमा राजनीतिक दलहरू सबैभन्दा भ्रष्ट भएको देखिएको छ । तर, यिनै दलका नेताहरूका कान नसमाती लोकतान्त्रिक व्यवस्थामा विकास सम्भव छैन, किनभने यिनकै हातमा देश हाँक्ने औजार हुन्छ । त्यसैले, यो चुनावी रन्कोमा दल आबद्ध सदस्यहरू, सामान्य मतदाता र सरोकारवाला समूहहरूले दलका घोषणापत्रमा आर्थिक विकासका प्रस्ट अवधारणा राख्न र त्यहीअनुसार दल चले–नचलेको अनुगमन गर्नु अत्यन्त आवश्यक छ ।
(सत्याल त्रिभुवन विश्वविद्यालय, तथ्यांकशास्त्रका प्राध्यापक हुन् ।)

One for the road : Road expansion in Kathmandu (Published on 2013-08-01 MyRepublica)

	Unmanaged roads are the most problematic parts of urban life in Nepal. Roads should be for all those who need it. But in Nepal, we are forced to ask the question: “For whom are these roads? Are they only for vehicles and bike drivers or also for pedestrians, walkers, strollers, cyclists, and physically disabled?” A pedestrian on the roads of Kathmandu is never safe. Dirt enters your lungs and chokes your breath, mud clings to your body, you can fall over rotting sewage and into open manholes. Passing vehicles can spray your body with open drainage. People say driving in Nepal is an act of bravery. I don’t know because I have never driven in Nepal, but I do know what valour you need to walk on these roads.
	There are many important things to keep in mind when you are a pedestrian in Kathmandu. Motorbikes have the privilege to ride in any part of the city at their ease. They can drive on footpaths, on wrong tracks, and can overtake at any place. If you are new to the city, it is vital for you to know that they are free to dash, overrun, or injure you. The second important stakeholders of footpaths are vendors who occupy half of it with their wares spread out on tarpaulins. The pedestrian comes only after these two in the hierarchy of road users. Road expansion in Kathmandu was the bold PM Dr Baburam Bhattarai’s ambitious project. When he became head of the government, he had put forth his humbug claim of acquiring a double digit growth in the economy by leaps and bounds, phrases he must have read in some book. But it never happened. Perplexed by his failed experiments, he flung himself wholeheartedly into a road demolishing project, which became his first and last semi-success. It was a success because most roads of the city were very narrow, facing the everyday problem of traffic jams. He was the first politician with the courage to tackle this problem. But it was only a semi-success because though there was large scale destruction, only a small fraction of the target was reconstructed. In the three municipalities of the valley, 200 km of road was demolished for widening, but as of today, only 45 km is gravelled and 22 km black-topped. The unmanaged debris on these roads has made commuters’ life hell. It raises the risk of Acute Respiratory Infection (ARI) which is a serious lung problem for all commuters, especially for infants who use these roads. A recent research report of the Ministry of Health shows that the risk of ARI has escalated in Kathmandu in the past one year. Dust particles were found 2 to 38 times higher in the streets of Kathmandu than the level considered safe by World Health Organization. In newly constructed cities of our neighboring countries like India and Pakistan, roads are built to accommodate not just vehicle but all types of commuters. Small trees and shrubs are integral parts of such roads, as the greenery not only increases the aesthetic beauty but also generates oxygen, controls air pollution. In Kathmandu, people remember the old days when the 13 km long Chinese Road, part of Arniko Highway ,was extended from Maitighar to Suryabinayak. It was spotted with green trees which had beautiful flowers, and their shades offered protection to travellers waiting for buses. This road is now just a story, as the widening project has destroyed all trees. Now there is no footpath, and the electricity poles and cable wires clutter the road. All trees and shrubs of the sideways are cut down, without planning for any more plantation. The same destruction of the greenery is to happen in the 27 km Ring Road, slated to grow to ten lanes from the current four. One NGO has estimated that about 1,239 trees will be chopped in the Koteswor to Kalanki stretch of the road. Around 4,000 trees will be chopped in the entire Ring Road. Environmentalists are concerned about this destruction. However, wider roads are inevitable for Kathmandu valley. So expansion and construction of the currently insufficient roads must go on, but without risking the environment. There is always a trade-off between development and environment, but sustainable development is that which optimizes environment protection. The four-lane Chinese Road constructed in 1970 was considered more than enough, but it became the most congested in thirty years. Constantly widening roads is not a sustainable solution. Alternative commuting modes like underground and overhead roads and convenient public transportation should be planned. Harmonizing modernization and nature is the new definition of civilization. Pedestrian friendly eco cities are now considered a breakthrough in development. Due to pressure from environmental groups, European nations have achieved a beautiful harmonization of development and nature, which is also reflected in their development indices. Their roads are not only for the vehicles but equally, or more, for pedestrians, cycle peddlers, and handicapped people. In 2010, Stockholm was awarded the ‘Green Capitol of Europe’, which is a symbol of the most liveable city in terms of environment. This year Nantes of western France got this recognition. According to the award committee, a good city should have ‘sustainable transport policy that includes friendly roads for public transport, bicycles with minimized car transports, and provide pedestrians with optimal conditions’. Kathmandu was ranked among the world’s 20 most polluted cities in 2010. We need integrated development policies in the development of our city and its transportation system. Otherwise, after a few years we will again go through the same rigmarole of construction.

विषाक्त खाद्यान्न - लाचार उपभोक्ता (कारोबार असार, २८)

नेपालका आमउपभोक्ता विवश छन्, विषाक्त एवं अखाद्य मिसावटका खाद्यान्न प्रयोग गर्न । विवश छन्, हरेक वस्तुको खरिदमा मिसावटी सामान किन्न । नेपालका उद्योग–व्यवसायहरू बिरामी छन् । यी यस्ता रोगले ग्रस्त छन् जसको उपचार डाक्टर या वैद्यसँग छैन । किनकि अधिकांश उद्योग–व्यवसायको जन्म नै केवल नाफा कमाउने दूषित बीउबाट भएको छ । जो जन्मदा स्वस्थ थिए ती पनि वयस्क हुदाँसम्ममा प्रदूषणले रोगी भइसकेका छन् । मुनाफाका लागि ढाँट र ठगी गर्नु व्यवसायीहरू आफ्नो अधिकार नै ठान्छन् । हालै मात्र भएको सुनचाँदी व्यवसायीहरूको हड्ताल, डेरी व्यवसायीहरूको कर्मचारीमाथिको आक्रमण, पानी व्यवसायीको हड्ताल र पेट्रोल डिपोवालाको खुला बजार नीतिको विरोधले यही देखाउँछ ।

कोलिफर्म एउटा परजीवी हो; जसले रगतमासी, हैजालगायतका थुप्रै पेटका रोग ल्याउँछ र जो दिसा मिसिएको प्रदूषित पानीबाटै प्रायः फैलिन्छ । प्याकेटमा बेचिने बच्चा–बूढालगायत सबैले खाने प्रशोधित  नमुना जाँच्दा यिनमा २ हजार ४ सयभन्दा बढी कोलिफर्म भेटियो । विश्व स्वास्थ्य संगठनका अनुसार दूध र पानीजस्ता पिउने पदार्थमा कोलिफर्मको मात्रा शून्य हुनुपर्छ र ५० भन्दा बढी भएमा यसबाट हट्टाकट्टा वयस्क पनि बिरामी पर्न सक्छ । ‘पास्चराइज’ प्रविधिबाट उत्पादित दूध केही बेर उच्च तापक्रममा उमालिन्छ र तत्कालै केही बेर चिस्याइन्छ, जसले गर्दा कोलिफर्मलगायत अन्य जीवाणु सबै मर्छन् । यसैले विदेशमा ‘पास्चराइज’ दूध प्रायः नउमालीकनै खाइन्छ । नेपालका सम्पूर्ण डेरीले ‘पास्चराइज’ पद्धतिको उत्पादनको स्वीकृति लिएका छन् तर ‘पास्चराइज’ गरे कि गरेनन् भन्ने विषयमा यतिखेर अहं प्रश्न उठेको छ । किनभने खाद्य प्रविधि तथा गुणनियन्त्रण विभागले अनुगमन गरेका प्रायः सबै दूध डेरीमा कोलिफार्म पाइयो । सबै डेरीवालाले यतिखेर एक स्वरमा ‘दूध उमालेर मात्र खानुस्’ भनेर हामीले प्याकेटमा लेखेका छौं भन्ने अभिव्यक्ति दिइरहेका छन् । यसले गर्दा नेपालका दुग्ध डेरीहरूमा ‘पास्चराइज’ भए–नभएको बारे आशंका जन्माएको छ ।  भक्तपुरको डेरीमा केही दिनअगाडि २ हजार ४ सयभन्दा बढी कोलिफर्म भएको दूध भेटियो । यो दुखद परिणाम मानव स्वास्थ्यका लागि अत्यन्त घातक पनि हो । कति बच्चा र बिरामीले यस्तो दूध खाए र बिरामी भए या मरे यसको खोजी किन गरिएको छैन । यसभन्दा दुःखद समाचार ती डेरी सञ्चालकले यस्तो भेटिएपछि जनतासँग क्षमा माग्नु सट्टा सरकारी कर्मचारीलाई आक्रमण गरे र पत्रकारका टेलिभिजन फुटाए भन्ने हो । भक्तपुरको डेरीजस्तै काठमाडौं र ललितपुरका डेरीहरूमा पनि यस्तै प्रदूषण भेटिएको छ । जनताको स्वास्थ्यलाई प्रत्यक्ष असर पु¥याउने यस्ता अपराधलाई, भक्तपुरका व्यवसायीले माग गरेका जस्तै, एकपल्ट माफी दिन मिल्छ कि मिल्दैन ? दूधमा प्रदूषण शून्य हुनुपर्छ भन्ने ज्ञान या कुन प्रविधिबाट यस्तो गर्न सकिन्छ भन्ने ज्ञान उद्योग खोल्नेले पहिले नै थाहा पाउनुपर्छ कि पर्दैन ? सुनमा मिसावट या ट्याक्सीको मिटर बिगार्नेजस्ता अनैतिक कामको समाचार आउँदा हाम्रा व्यवसायी कसरी जनतालाई ठग्नमा लिप्त रहेछन् भन्ने थाहा हुन्छ ।
सरकारको एउटा ठूूलो जिम्मेवारी भनेको उद्योग–व्यवसायीको ठगीबाट उपभोक्तालाई जोगाउनु पनि हो । सरकार कमजोर र भ्रमित भएको मौका छोपेर गर्दै रहेको ठगीलाई नैतिक या अज्ञानता या नियम नभएको भनेर ‘पानीमाथिको ओभानो’ हुन मिल्दैन । अझ अनुगमनमा फटाइँ भेटिएपछि त्यसको विरोधमा बन्द–हड्ताल र नाराबाजी गर्नु भनेको बिनावस्त्र खुला बजारमा नांगै उफ्रिनुजस्तै मूर्खतामाथिको महामुख्र्याइँ हो । यदि यस्तो सजाय माफ गर्न सकिनेछ भने परीक्षामा चिट चोर्दा समातिएकालाई किन सजाय दिने ?

सुन व्यापारी होस् या पेट्रोल डिपोवाला या डेरी व्यवसायीहरू र उपभोक्ता ठगिएकोमा र ठगी गर्नेलाई समात्दा बन्द, तोडफोड गरेकोमा उद्योग–वाणिज्य महासंघजस्ता संगठनहरूले जनता र नैतिकताको पक्षमा, बन्द र तोडफोडको विरोधमा बोल्नुपर्छ कि पर्दैन ? कि योलगायतका पेसागत संगठनहरूको कर्तव्य केवल सम्बन्धित पेसावालहरूको कर र भ्याट कम गर्न सरकारलाई दबाब दिनु मात्र हो ? नेपाल उद्योग वाणिज्य महासंघले निकै प्रखर भएर लोकतन्त्रका लागि आवाज उठाएको छ । बेला–बेलामा हुने नेपाल बन्दलाई सधैं बन्द गर्नुपर्छ भन्ने आवाज पनि यो महासंघले उठाएको छ, जो नेपालको आर्थिक प्रगतिका लागि अत्यावश्यक हो । तर, यही महासंघले उद्योग–व्यवसायीहरूका अनैतिक क्रियाकलापको भत्र्सना गरी आफ्नो समाजप्रतिको दायित्व दर्साउन किन पछि परेको हो ? बुझिनसक्नु भएको छ । नेपाल उद्योग वाणिज्य महासंघजस्तो व्यावसायिक संस्थाको भूमिका राजनीतिक दलका भ्रातृ संगठनहरूभन्दा फरक हुनैपर्छ ।  

खाद्यान्न अखाद्य या विषाक्त वस्तुको मिसावट अथवा उपभोग गर्ने अन्तिम तिथि–मितिको हेरफेरजस्ता कार्यले मानवीय स्वास्थ्यमा असर पर्ने हुनाले अरू खाले चलखेलभन्दा यो संगीन अपराध हो । केही वर्ष पहिले नयाँसडकको गुदपाक भण्डारको यस्तै मिसावटको समाचार छताछुल्ल भएको थियो । ठूलो जनदबाबपछि मात्र कारबाही भयो र त्यो पसल अहिले बन्द छ, तर त्यसैको छेउछाउमा या अरू ठाउँमा अहिले बेचिराखिएको गुदपाक शुद्घ छ कि छैन ? बजारमा बिक्रीका लागि राखिएका दैनिक उपभोग गर्ने खाद्य सामग्री— जुसदेखि दूधसम्म, पानीदेखि तेलसम्म, हरियो तरकारीदेखि चामल, दालसम्म निम्न गुणस्तरको या विषादी मिसिएको पाइएको छ । केही समयअगाडि खाद्यान्नमा मानव स्वास्थ्यमा गम्भीर असर गर्ने घातक विषादीहरूबारे एक अध्ययन गरिएको थियो । विश्व स्वास्थ्य संगठनको सहयोगमा खाद्य प्रविधि तथा गुण नियन्त्रण विभागले भारतको भिम्टा प्रयोगशालामा गरेको सो अध्ययनमा नेपाली बजारमा बिक्रीका लागि राखिएका चामल, गेडागुडी, हरियो सागपात, चिउरा तथा पाउरोटीको नमुना परीक्षण गरेको थियो । परीक्षणका क्रममा ती खाद्यान्नमा मानव स्वास्थ्यलाई असर पु¥याउने नौ थरीका विषादी मिसाइएको पाइयो । देशका २५ वटा जिल्लाबाट नमुना संकलन गरी एक वर्ष समय लगाएर गरिएको सो अध्ययनले खाद्यान्नमा प्रतिबन्धित विषादीसमेत फेला परेको थियो ।

हाम्रो खाद्य परीक्षण गर्ने निकायको कमजोर प्राविधिक क्षमता र मानवीय कमीले छानबिन निरन्तर र स्तरीय हुनसकेको छैन । यति हुँदाहुँदै पनि जे–जस्तो खाद्यान्नमा निर्घात हेराफेरी गरेको भेटियो, यसरी मिसावट गर्नेहरू सोझै उपभोक्ताका शत्रु हुन् । त्यसैले तिनीहरूलाई कारबाही गर्नु जरुरी छ । खाद्य प्रविधि तथा गुण नियन्त्रण विभाग, वाणिज्य विभाग, जिल्ला प्रशासन कार्यालय, प्रहरीलगायतका उत्तरदायित्व पाएका र उपभोक्ताले तिरेको करबाट तलब खाएका सरकारी निकायहरूले यस्ता उत्पादक तथा विक्रेतालाई कडा कारबाही गर्न सक्नुपर्छ । साथै यसको नियमनका लागि इमानदार उद्योगी, सम्बन्धित सघं तथा उपभोक्ता हित संरक्षण मञ्चजस्ता संगठनहरू सबैको जागरूकता र सहयोग उत्तिकै आवश्यक छ ।

Very interesting news: Nagarik Asad 27

Bridging between Jobseekers and excess liquidity

Provide jobs to able citizens is a major responsibility of the government. To bridge the demand and supply between  enterprenuers and job seeker there should be some semi-governmental institutions. According to NLSS 2011 about 7.5 million population are between the age of 15-30. These are the  youngsters who enter to the job market after completing some education or training. In other word the group of jobless youth.

A year ago banks were feeling thirsty due to liquidity crunch and now they are flooding with over liquidity with no proper outlet for proper streamline the deposit. According to the central bank NRB, the banking sector has an estimated deposit of more than Rs 64 billion and lending from banks was only Rs 11 billions as of last December(Paush Masanta, 2068). Laxmi, the goddes of prosperity and wealth is considerd unsteady and tottering. If money stays in one place it is counter productive. The current event of banking sector in Nepal has exibited the same nature of money. When the loaning outlets are nearly exhausted Nepali banks which flourished and boomed in the past decade are now getting under the pressure of the unused deposits. They are lowering the interest rate and investing in less productive NRB  treasury bills.

Talking to the bankers at his office on December 2011, Finance Minister, stressed on the need for increasing investment in the productive sector, utilising the surplus liquidity currently in the banks and financial institutions. “The liquidity in banks should be floated to the market,” he said, and added the government and NRB will prepare necessary programmes to develop infrastructure for the investment. However, bankers are less optimistic with the miracle promises of the Finance minister.

In November, 2011 the central bank NRB issued treasury bills worth Rs 5 billion, to sooth the outlet problem of the commercial banks but it was an insignificant approach. Currently, the deposited amount at banks is as huge as more than Rs 64 billion and lending only Rs 11 billion. The lowering of interest rate and asking the government for further concessions to the housing loans, show their anxiety. Burrowing from banks has dwindled after the governmental imposed source of big amount of investment in buying any property which that the business in housing, land, and share had dramatically declined.

Thus on one side is a large volume of money waiting for better investment outlets and on the other side is the large labour force  semi educated and skilled seeking jobs. The bridging between these two if can be done will solve a big problem and if not solved properly will transform to one or other devastating consequences. Government, should establish some semi government or independent institute to do research and work as bridge.

Some investment sector for Nepal are industry, business, infrastructure, energy, education, health etc. Which of them are more potential for long term investment is a hot question now.

Industry is Nepal is a failed experiment. Hundreds of industries including several large joint ventures are closure due to labour strikes or energy crisis. Closing of several large industries like Nepal Lever, Hindustan Unilever, Dabur Nepal, and Surya Nepal are some example of such failure. Uncontrollable flood of cheap Chinese and Indian goods creates suffocation to the national industry. Shortage of labour and energy crisis are other impediments. As an aftermath of the visit of the Chinese premier, China has announced to accelerate plans to expand a railway network Joining Tibet with Nepal boarder with an consideration of building a railway line in Nepal connecting the Indian Boarder.  Meantime, India also has several such plans and Indian railways are already connected to several boarding cities of India. These initiations by the two neighboring Giants makes the possibility of large industries more impossible. They are highly industrialized and has cheap labour so that such the transit will flood the Nepali market with cheap goods. Industries like cottage and indigenous product seems to have future.

Other sectors like infrastructure and energy are potential however the large investments and long gestation time needed by them makes such investment risky and inaccessible for small unorganized investors.

Investment in education is still promising however it is saturated in many sense. High competition has made it unethical and less profitable. Strikes and traditional pedagogy has made this sector difficult.

More promising sectors are agriculture, tourism and health. Value added agriculture such as livestock and dairy industry, carpet and dyeing, apple/orange and whiskey production. These are such example where agriculture production is indigenous type and output is value added with semi skilled labours.

Tourism is the evergreen investment sector for Nepal with mountains, hills, rivers, glaciers, temples, Buddha's birthplace and religious locations. But it needs governmental assurance and roads as prerequisite. According to the United Nations World Tourism Organization in 2010 about 16 million international tourist visited Thailand and 22 million visited Austria which is a small landlocked country of Europe. On the same year less than half million tourists visited Nepal that according to Nepal Tourism Board was the recorded number.

The newest and highly emerging sector is health. With the ever growing percapita income health service will flourish in the coming days.

Salary raise or cap ?

(unedited version of the article published on July 3, 2013 in Mr Republica) 

Pay hike for government employees has become a thorny issue ahead of the impending budget. All employee unions have been putting pressure on the government to raise their salary level, which has been stagnant for the last three years. They have threatened the government with protests that could potentially impact CA election. On the other hand, political parties during their interaction with government representatives have shown strong aversion to such a raise. 

But this does not stem from their concern for the country. Rather, they seem to be reluctant for pay rise of government employees as all its credit will go to the nonpolitical government. Nepal is among the Asian countries that pay very little to government workers, even while the inflation rate is sky high. Inflation is directly related to purchasing power measured by Consumer Price Index (CPI). If the CPI for food is 10 relative to previous year, it indicates that a food item purchased for Rs 100 last year costs Rs 110 this year. In most developed countries and in many developing countries in Asia like India there is a system of regular adjustment of salary in line with the inflation level. In absence of such self-adjustment mechanism in Nepal, salary always becomes a contentious issue during budget formulation. 

A second factor that may influence government’s pay scale is the country’s economic position. A country with high per capita GDP may be better placed to pay its civil servants well. However, Nepal’s public employee salaries are poor even when compared to countries with similar per capita GDP. For example, Pakistan with about twice the level of per-capita GDP and Bangladesh with per-capita GDP roughly equal to Nepal’s, both pay more to university teachers than Nepal. According to a 2011 World Bank report, Pakistan has a per capita GDP of $1,030, Bangladesh $638 and Nepal $562. 

In 2011, the Higher Education Commission of Pakistan’s revised salary for tenure-track assistant professor was PRs 104,000 and final pay for professor level was around PRs 405,000. A recent job vacancy by the National University of Bangladesh, a public body, announced a salary of Taka 25,720 (1 US dollar=Taka 78) for Associate Professor. Private universities there pay upward of Taka 90,500 to its entry-level professors. In India the going salary of a starting lecturer is IRs 21,600 including academic benefits. The final scale of a full professor is around IRs 80,000. We can take this as a reference for salary comparison in the region. 

Inflation adversely affects the salary rate. The inflation rate for the fiscal year 2011-12, calculated by Nepal Rastra Bank, was 9.8. This indicates that if someone earned a monthly salary of NRs 1,000 last year and there was no salary rise, the real salary this year would be Rs 920. 

Civil servants and related workers unions are putting pressure on the government for salary raise. In response, the government has shown an inclination towards some kind of a raise. However, there is some disagreement about the amount of increment, especially in the face of the resentment of political parties. One way out would be to go for minimum salary raise that just covers the inflation rate. For example, if a civil servant was getting Rs 15,000 in 2008-09, his salary would be worth only Rs 11,497 in year 2011-12 due to inflation. Hence, he should get a raise of about 23 percent to bring his salary on par with the 2008-09 level. In the same way the minimum salary increment for different salary groups can be calculated. 

The dilemma for the bureaucratic government is whether to side with the political parties and agree to negligible (or no) pay increase and incur the ire of civil servants or to increase the pay substantially risking a political backlash. The challenge will also be to keep a lid on cost of living. If the inflation is very high, just about any amount of salary increase will be meaningless.