Sunday, September 6, 2015

Mission impossible, Sep 7, 2072, MyRepublica

The government has pledged to the new 'Sustainable Development Goals (SDG), which is an ambitious plan of graduating to a developing country. Just like previous plans, SDG also appears to be yet another publicity stunt of the new government and the new National Planning Commission (NPC) team.

Mission impossibleNepal is one of the most progressive countries in terms of entering into national and international agreements and most regressive in implementing them. Nepalis greatly suffer from paucity of electricity, drinking water, food and shelter, mostly as a result of poor governance. Ambitious projects have only brought disappointment.

Melamchi Water Supply Project was first sketched in 1998 to address the drinking water crisis in Kathmandu. This much-hyped, US $320 million project was expected to supply water from 2007, but to date is it's only 35 percent complete. Every time a new government is formed, it promises a new completion date for this project, thus the project is considered 'mission impossible'. Such is also the fate of Chure Hill Conservation Project, Mid Hill Highway, Hulaki Highway, Bhairahawa International Airport, West Seti Hydropower Project and Agriculture Prospective Plan (APP)—just to name a few.

National Strategy for the Development of Statistics (NSDS) was an international commitment aimed at improvement of national data system, a prerequisite condition for SDG. After spending millions of rupees the government has forgotten it. Major political parties had promised people that there would be 'no power cuts' in five years, but it is clear that this promise was only for public consumption.

Earthquake victims have not seen any settlement plans even after three months. Landslide victims of Jure and flood-displaced in Surkhet haven't got any relief. Even development projects destroyed during insurgency haven't been restored.

Terrible road condition in Kathmandu is the epitome of government failure on execution. Road expansion was started during the last days of Baburam Bhattarai government. It is still to be completed. Wrecked water supply lines, open drainage and randomly lying telephone and TV cables are features of these broken roads.

Incomplete goals and plans are our great challenges. Forgetting failed plans and making new ones leads us nowhere. When a new team enters the NPC, it shows eagerness for new projects rather than continuing with uncompleted ones. This trend might continue this time as well.

Most SDG targets are impractical. For example, the indicator of 'good governance' is currently 0.83 and the country aims to achieve a figure of 2.5 in 15 years. When the country has to deal with independent bureaucracies, police and judiciary of federal states with their own governance modalities, monitoring will be more difficult. How can the central government ensure compulsory literacy, safe motherhood, 100-percent electrification until it fully funds and effectively monitors these programs?

Another challenge is Infant Mortality Rate (IMR). Reduction in IMR is considered one of the greatest achievements of Nepal. We achieved a reduction of 18.4 infant deaths per thousand in 12 years' time; from 64.4 in 2001 to 46 in 2013. In the next 15 years, if this trend continues, we can reduce IMR to 23 per thousand, whereas the SDG target is less than one per thousand. This is impossible.

Economic growth target is even more doubtful, which the government seems to have realized, as is evident in the Economic Survey 2014/15, which states: "In a situation where average annual growth rate for the past 10 years has been mere 4.1 percent, it poses a tough challenge to the country to achieve a rate of 7-8 percent for graduating from a developing country".

Obviously, coming days will be holidays for development works due to continued political turmoil and transition. All sectors including bureaucracy, economy, business, and academia are politically influenced. Contrary to India, where political change in government makes little impact on bureaucracy and in development works, in Nepal such change often impedes development.

Therefore, the government should have focused on institutionalization of bureaucracy at the federal level. Budget sharing is most challenging. Currently, foreign aid makes up a large chunk of budget and local and excise taxes go to the central treasury. The roles of centralized NPC, Nepal Rastra Bank, and ministries in the future federal structure are questionable. So setting new development goals on poverty reduction, improved health and education is untimely.

The government should first complete national pride projects and manage the federal transition. It should also focus on relief for earthquake, landslide and famine victims. The parties in power should also keep its electoral promises. Our implementation and monitoring mechanisms, too, need to be vastly improved to make better use of development budget. There needs to be better coordination within and between government offices, departments and ministries. To start with, there should be a thorough assessment of where we stand today.