Admirable Leaps: NATIONAL CENSUS
The long-awaited findings of the 2011 population census were released by CBS on Monday, November 26. Population census reports are always important as they depict the reality of the population distribution, which in turn provide answers to several development and politics related queries like the ethnic composition of population by geographical area. CBS has a hundred years of experience in this field, as the first population census in Nepal was taken in 1911. This time it too seventeen months to generate the result, which is rather slow for such an experienced institution, especially in a fast moving world like ours. But the coverage and the disaggregated analysis that it has put forth must be appreciated.
During the presentation and in the following days’ analysis by experts, the low population growth rate was considered a key indicator of the success of population projects. The current census shows the population of Nepal to be 26,494,504, with a growth rate of 1.35 percent per-annum (in 2001, it was 2.25 percent). However, it is also true that the current census was taken de jure, and counts only those who were present on the census day. The 2011 census report shows that 1,921,494 citizens of the country were absent on the day of enumeration. Most of these people were abroad for work or study. These absentees will certainly return one day if our country can generate work for them or if they are expelled by the ever harshening policies in these labor-receiving countries. They are our citizens and the government is responsible for them. Also, we could ask, if these absentees were here in the last decade enjoying their family life, would they not have increased their family?
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Is it right to exclude them from the census? If the absentees are added to our population, and the 138,910 foreign citizens who are included in our count are excluded, the actual population size of 2011 will be 28,415,998. This corrected population size indicates a growth rate of 2.02 percent and not 1.35 percent. This corrected growth rate is close to the one in 1991 (2.10 percent). So are we back to square-one? This absente population is also the answer to several seemingly perplexing findings such as a lower sex ratio. In 2001, sex ratio was almost equal, but in 2011 the census indicates that there are only 94 males per 100 females. Reduction of the male population is not surprising as most of the citizens who go abroad are male, and about 88 percent of absentees of 2011 were also male.
There are some encouraging indicators in the report. For example, the achievements in education sector should be admired. In 2001 only about 54 percent of Nepalis were literate, which increased to about 66 percent in 2011. The definition of literacy has changed since 2001. Previously, literacy was considered the ‘ability to read’, and now it has been redefined as the ability to ‘read and write’. The female literacy rate and its growth over the last decade are remarkable. In 2001, the female literacy was 43 percent; now it is 57 percent. The growth rate is more than double the rate for male literacy. However, big discrepancies in public versus private education should not be overlooked by policymakers.
Some interesting features of the result include population shifts from the mountains to the hills, and from hills to Tarai. Also, a large shift to urban areas is indicated. Similar shifts were also seen in the 2001 census. This trend indicates a natural quest for better settlement and opportunities. But then it impacts the concentration of population in a few areas like the capital city that has shown an alarming growth rate of 61 percent. Similarly, one special feature that can be seen in this report is the overwhelming growth of Christianity. In 2001, only 0.45 percent of the population was Christian, which has now increased to 1.4 percent, and the followers of Buddhism have declined by about 2 percent. The identification of some additional caste/ethnic and linguistic groups is another interesting facet of the report.
A lot of new concepts have found their way into this census. Two were related to gender and disability. The census information is more gender disaggregated and includes many gender related indicators. One such indicator, ‘female ownership of fixed asset’ shows that 20 percent of females have ownership of fixed assets like land or houses. Increasing female literacy and advocacy of NGOs must be the reason for this achievement. When the questionnaire was being developed, many NGOs and INGOs were putting pressure on CBS to include indicators favorable to them. Some of them did end up being included after several rounds of discussions.
It is good to include useful indicators, but in the meantime, concerned agencies should be aware that the inclusion of more indicators makes the process lengthy, and has the possibility of making the whole data useless as the respondent or enumerator may become disinterested. This could be one of the reasons for the current report’s delay. However, other factors such as the ethnic and linguistic composition of the population, which is a political instrument in elections, could also be the cause of the delay. Whatever be the cause, release of such valuable information amidst the intense political and social discussions that are underway, is timely. This report will help solve many difficult issues and will be a precious asset for researchers, academicians, policymakers and political leaders. Concerned people are still waiting further analysis and publication of economic activity and health indicators.
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